Recently declassified documents show federal intelligence officials warned decision-makers that a police dispersal of “Freedom Pact” protesters in Ottawa last winter could trigger an “opportunistic attack” against a politician or government symbol. The Feb. 24 “threat peak,” labeled Secret/Canadian Eyes Only, also advised that extremist “influencers” will leverage the outcome of the protests for continued recruitment and propaganda, regardless of whether the COVID pandemic restrictions -19 had relaxed. Ideologically motivated extremists would likely use police enforcement “to encourage violent retaliation or as further evidence of government ‘tyranny,’” the four-page assessment said. The partially redacted memo, obtained by The Canadian Press through the Access to Information Act, was among several analyzes by the Terrorism Assessment Center before, during and after the protests that paralyzed downtown Ottawa for three weeks starting on the end of January. The centre, which is overseen by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, brings together security and intelligence professionals from various agencies to compile terrorist threat assessments, based on classified and open source information, to share with partners at home and abroad. The goal is to provide senior decision makers with the latest and most detailed information to assess the overall level of threat and risk. Protesters, many with large trucks, took to Ottawa’s main streets to oppose COVID-19 health measures and Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government. The influx, including some participants with roots in the far-right movement, prompted many businesses to close their doors and aggravated residents with noise, diesel fumes and disruptive behavior. On February 14, the government invoked the State of Emergency Act, which allowed temporary measures, including regulating and banning public gatherings, designating safe spaces, instructing banks to freeze assets and banning support for participants . Authorities towed trucks, arrested more than 200 people and filed hundreds of charges. Extremist ideologues portrayed the police response as “brutality” and the use of Emergency Law as further evidence of federal “tyranny,” comparing the government’s tactics to those of foreign dictatorships, the Feb. 24 assessment noted. He added that several online incitements to violence had appeared, with some suggesting that direct action against politicians, the police and even their families was the only option. “That’s something that usually happens with these kinds of movements,” said Barbara Perry, director of the Center on Hate, Bias and Extremism at Ontario Tech University. “When you press them, they use even more evidence that they are the ones being attacked, that their assessment is correct, that they are being silenced, that they are the ones being marginalized and threatened by this tyrannical state. as they like to say.” The Freedom Convoy and related protests at government buildings and border crossings fueled anti-authority sentiment among supporters of ideologically motivated violent extremism, or IMVE, according to the February 24 assessment. “The perception that social resilience is fragile, or that government/police response warrants violent resistance, could inspire a lone actor or small group inspired by IMVE to carry out an opportunistic attack against a political figure or symbol of the government,” the analysts concluded. . “IMVE supporters will continue to encourage and capitalize on anti-government sentiment and protest movements, whether related to the pandemic or other issues, in an attempt to undermine public trust and social cohesion and attract vulnerable people to their ideological purpose. .” Future easing of public health restrictions may calm the protest movement, but people who embrace violent extremism, particularly those who “want to accelerate the collapse of current social and political orders, are unlikely to calm down,” the assessment said. “IMVE’s threats against political figures and government symbols will continue for the foreseeable future.” The national capital would see subsequent protests, including a march in late June that included many of the figures involved in the winter events. “They’ve really set the scene and gotten more people around a broader distrust of government, science, academia, the media — all of those institutions,” Perry said. “So I think they’re going to continue to find ways to exploit those concerns, exploit those grievances that they helped create or at least exacerbate.” The terrorism assessment center began monitoring the truck convoy heading to Ottawa as early as January 26, producing a secret assessment that highlighted the potential for opportunistic violence on the fringes of the demonstration. A February 3 analysis said a coordinated terrorist attack or planned raid on Parliament Hill or other federal sites was unlikely. “The most likely IMVE-related scenario involves an inspired lone actor using available weapons and resources such as knives, firearms, improvised explosive devices and vehicles in public spaces against soft targets, including opposition groups or members of the public.” This report by The Canadian Press was first published on August 17, 2022.
