Why it matters: Ambassador Qin Gang said if Washington doesn’t “show restraint” in the wake of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, there will be “another round of tensions” — not dialogue on issues like climate change and nuclear safety . State of play: China held week-long military drills after Pelosi’s trip earlier this month. They appeared to be a dress rehearsal for Taiwan’s submission and included recent aggressive steps such as ignoring the middle line between Taiwan and the mainland.
After Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) led another delegation to Taipei on Sunday, China began a new series of smaller-scale exercises. The White House argues that China is using Pelosi’s visit as a pretext to change the status quo and “intimidate and coerce Taiwan.” Chin cited his own frantic efforts to prevent the visit — using “every possible channel,” he said — as evidence that China did not want such a pretext.
But both sides acknowledge that tensions over Taiwan are dangerously escalating and poisoning the broader relationship.
Chin said the One China Principle – which holds that there is only one Chinese state and that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China – should be the basis of all US-China relations. Without that “foundation,” he said, talks like those proposed by President Biden on nuclear security cannot proceed. The long-standing policy of the US is to recognize China’s claims to Taiwan, but neither to accept them nor to support Taiwan’s independence.
The background: Speaking to a small group of reporters in Washington, Chin spoke on the record for 80 minutes, fielding questions on a range of sensitive topics – a rarity for senior Chinese officials.
He rarely shied away from a set of talking points — which, in Taiwan’s case, were strikingly aggressive — but conceded that Beijing has work to do to improve its image both in Taiwan and in the U.S., where he said “fear of China prevailed.
What’s next: The US plans to send navy ships through the Taiwan Strait in the coming weeks and approve additional arms sales to Taiwan.
These steps would be consistent with the practices of previous governments, but Chin warned that China would see them as an escalation of tension and would be “forced to react”.
What to watch: Chin reiterated that Taiwan should be reunited with mainland China, but said he found recent reports that the timetable for a potential invasion is shrinking to be “baseless.”
Unification will be done peacefully if possible and by force if necessary, Chin said, although he said Beijing reserved only the last option to prevent “secession” in Taiwan or “foreign intervention”. Taiwan could even remain a democracy under the “One Country, Two Systems” principle, Chin said. But he also claimed that One Country, Two Systems was alive and well in Hong Kong, despite Beijing’s reassertion of direct control there. He also made it clear which system would take precedence after reunification: “If there is not one country, there cannot be two systems.” Asked about a comment by China’s ambassador to France that China would pursue “re-education” in Taiwan after reunification, Chin said Beijing needed to “strengthen [shared] National identity.”
Of note: Chin dismissed the idea that Biden — who has said publicly that the U.S. military thought Pelosi’s visit was “not a good idea” — had disapproved of Pelosi’s visit.
He argued that the administration had “hosted” the trip and that Congress “is not an independent, unchecked branch under international law” (although it is, of course, under the US Constitution).
