The fate of the other two could take longer to become clear. Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming looks almost certain to lose her seat amid furious Republican backlash against her role as co-chair of the committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on Capitol Hill and her vote to impeach former President Donald Trump J. Trump for his role in fomenting this rebellion. In Alaska, former Gov. Sarah Palin is trying to get back into the open race for the state’s only congressional seat, last held by Don Young, who died in March. Ms. Palin, who was John McCain’s infamous game-changing running mate in 2008, is running in both a special runoff for the remainder of Mr. Young’s term and a primary for a full term. Both Ms. Palin, whose opponents say she has been more visible in recent years on right-wing television in the Lower 48 than in her home state, and Ms. Cheney have faced deep skepticism from voters who believe the spotlight has reached it matters more to them than looking after and caring for the people who elected them. Ms. Palin, however, was an early supporter of Mr. Trump and won his support. Also in Alaska, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who was one of seven Republicans who voted to convict Mr. Trump of sedition, is in a re-election race against a field led by Kelly Tshibaka, a former state official who she endorsed Mr Trump and shouted “MAGA all the way”. Race announcements in Alaska could be days or even weeks away, as mail-in ballots will be collected and counted until at least August 31. It’s possible by the end of the night we’ll only know who has the early and in-person voting lead. Still, Ms. Palin and Ms. Murkowski can take solace in this: They only need to be among the top four winners in their primaries to secure a spot in November’s general election.
Wyoming home game
Ms. Cheney may be admired by some across the political spectrum for her actions on the House committee investigating Jan. 6 and her commitment to democracy and the rule of law. But in Wyoming, a state Mr. Trump won with 70 percent of the vote in 2020, her crusade to hold him accountable for inciting the Capitol mob and for sitting idle for hours as rioters threatened legislators and his vice president. doomed her re-election chances from the start of her campaign. Ms. Cheney, who lost her House leadership job after her impeachment vote, has shown no regrets. “If the cost of defending the Constitution is losing a House seat, then that’s a price I’m willing to pay,” she told The New York Times this month. The front-runner in the Republican primary is Harriet Hagerman, whom Mr. Trump has chosen as an instrument of revenge against Ms. Cheney. Ms. Hageman, a former Republican National Committee official, led Ms. Cheney by nearly 30 percentage points in a poll this month by the University of Wyoming. Harriet Hageman at a rally hosted by former President Donald J. Trump in Casper, Wyo.Credit…Natalie Behring for The New York Times The survey included Democratic voters who plan to swing by and vote for Ms. Cheney, as Wyoming law allows and the Cheney campaign has encouraged. In fact, nearly half of likely Democratic voters said they would vote in the GOP primary, almost all for Ms. Cheney. But the Democrats in Wyoming are vastly outnumbered. Among likely Republican voters, the poll found, 45 percent said President Biden’s election was “illegitimate” and 60 percent said the Jan. 6 House committee was not “fair and impartial.” . The conservative group Club for Growth is amassing a TV ad that says, “Liz Cheney is wrong about Trump and wrong about Wyoming.” Ms. Hageman, a trial lawyer who has fought against federal land-use regulations, has tailored a more subtle message to voters, portraying Ms. Cheney as more interested in national fame than representing Wyoming. “Liz Cheney. She spent her time in Congress and this election,” says one of her final ads. “Well, it’s not about her, it’s about you.” Mrs. Cheney, 56, who was first elected in 2016 as Wyoming’s only member of Congress, fills the seat her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, held for a decade. She has made almost no appearances at public gatherings in the state this year, in part because of threats against her life, according to her office. In her latest campaign message, Ms. Cheney seemed resigned to whatever comes next. “History has shown us time and time again how these kinds of poisonous lies destroy free nations,” he said of Mr. Trump’s false claims of a stolen election and those who repeat them. “No one who understands the laws of our nation, no one with an honest, fair, genuine commitment to our Constitution, would say that. It is a cancer that threatens our great democracy.”
Alaska’s House Race
Ms. Palin, now 58, is one of three candidates in a special election runoff for the remainder of Mr. Young’s term as Alaska’s sole member of the House. But he is among more than 20 in the qualifiers. Two years ago, Alaskans decided through a ballot initiative to overhaul the state’s elections. Party primaries were replaced by “free-for-all” or “jungle” primaries open to candidates from all parties. The top four finishers advance to the general election, the winner of which is determined by selection ranking. Opponents of the changes argued that ranked choice was intended to give Democrats, with only half as many registered voters in the state as Republicans, a better chance in the general election. Ms. Palin denounced the ranking option this month at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas. “In Alaska, we have this weird system,” he said. “It’s complicated, it’s complicated, and it results in voter suppression.” Ms. Palin denounced ranked-choice voting this month at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas. Voters in ranking contests prioritize their choices. To find a winner, each candidate’s first-choice votes are tallied, the last-place finisher is eliminated, and the eliminated candidate’s second-choice votes are added to those candidates’ totals — and so on, until someone exceeds 50 percent of the vote. Ms. Palin, who enjoys near-universal name recognition, finished first in the June primary for the remainder of Mr. Young’s term. But he faces serious competition in Tuesday’s three-way contest from Nick Begich III, a Republican businessman from a prominent Alaska Democratic family, and Mary Peltola, a Democrat who served in the Alaska Legislature. Public polls were rare. The Alaska poll in late July found that in a three-way race, Ms. Peltola led with 42 percent, followed by Mr. Begich and Ms. Palin with 29 percent each. The poll also suggested why Ms. Palin might be struggling. She was viewed favorably by 31% of registered voters in Alaska and 61% negatively. With Ms. Palin rejected and voters’ second choices ranked, according to the poll, Mr. Begić edged out Ms. Peltola. Alaska voters have been skeptical of Ms. Palin since she resigned in 2009, midway through her first term as governor, to pursue a growing reputation as a national Tea Party star. He flirted with a presidential bid in 2012 and more recently appeared as a television commentator and occasional reality TV star.
Alaska Senate race
Alaska’s new voting system will likely work to Ms. Murkowski’s advantage. A traditional party primary could well have ended her career. A moderate Republican, Ms. Murkowski is often a player in bipartisan deal-making in the Senate. She was defeated in the 2010 Republican primary, but won the general election as a write-in candidate. Sen. Lisa Murkowski is expected to be a top four candidate on the ballot in November. Credit…Pete Marovich for The New York Times He is a strong favorite to make it past the first four of Tuesday’s primary, along with Ms Tshibaka, who shared a stage with Mr Trump in Anchorage last month. A Democrat, Pat Chesbrough, is seen as another possible top-four finisher. In all, there are 19 candidates in the Senate primary, including eight Republicans, three Democrats, two from the Alaska Independence Party and many with no party affiliation — showing that Alaskan politics is as diverse as its famous landscape.
