There are so many bottlenecks that we have to deal with over the next five to ten years.- Mike Moffatt, Economist During the housing crisis, there were sharp increases in rents and property prices, and an increased rate of homelessness in the county. The think-tank’s report, which examines whether Ontario’s homebuilding target is not only accurate but achievable, is titled “Ontario’s Need for 1.5 Million More Homes.” Published Tuesday by the Smart Prosperity Institute at the University of Ottawa. The report says Ontario already faces a shortfall of about 500,000 homes and needs another million to meet the projected demand created by a growing population by 2031 — a goal Ontario is unlikely to meet. “I would say, unfortunately not,” said Mike Moffatt, an economist at the Smart Prosperity Institute and the paper’s lead researcher. “There are so many bottlenecks that we have to deal with in the next five to 10 years.”
The ‘congestions’ that could hamper Ontario’s efforts
Among them, Moffatt said, are the official development plans of Ontario’s 444 municipalities, many of which are planning far lower buildings for new housing than the ambitious target Ontario has set for itself. A crane rises above a row of houses in London’s west end in July. Until 2015, Ontario had a well-functioning real estate market, but changes in federal immigration policy and a drop in the price of oil meant that those seeking their fortune in Alberta started coming to Ontario. (Colin Butler/CBC News) For example, in London, the city needs almost 40,000 homes to meet the demand created by its growing population by 2031, according to Moffatt, but the city’s official plan estimates it only needs about half that number. . “The London Plan assumes we’ll build about 22,000,” Moffat told CBC News, noting that it’s not the only official plan to underestimate the amount of housing needed over the next nine years. “These are really not compatible with the provincial government’s housing goals,” he said. “So the Ford government has a tough choice: do they approve all these council plans knowing they are probably inadequate for the housing target, or do they tell councils to go back on the plan, which could be upsetting?” In other words, the province risks being accused of meddling in local affairs or criticized for creating sprawl by developing Ontario’s farmland, which is already disappearing at an alarming rate. In addition, Moffatt said, Ontario faces a shortage of skilled trades, in part because of a rapidly aging industry where many older workers are looking to hang up their hats for good. “We need to effectively double the number of people involved in skilled trades at a time when many of them are retiring.” Moffat said the province needs new policies that increase productivity in the homebuilding business, but so far those policies don’t exist. However, the Progressive Conservative government said on Monday that it has already delivered “historic results” in terms of new home construction. In an email to CBC News, Victoria Podbielski, press secretary to Housing Minister Steve Clark, wrote that Ontario broke ground on 100,000 new housing starts in 2021, “the highest level of new housing starts in one year since 1987.” Podbielski added that last year, the province also built the most apartment units in a single year since 1991. He said recent proposed strong legislation for provincial mayors will remove barriers to growth, while at the same time Ontario is spending $1.5 billion on skilled trades and last week convened the housing action plan implementation team, which consists of civic leaders from around the province.
Ontario had to see what was coming
Moffatt said how Ontario got into this predicament is a complicated story with many twists and turns, but one the economist believes the province, developers and the real estate industry should have seen coming. More builds are on display in London this summer. To meet the target of 1.5 million homes by 2031, Ontario would have to build at a rate of 458 homes per day over the next nine years. (Colin Butler/CBC News) Until 2015, Moffatt said, Ontario had a well-functioning real estate market, but changes in federal immigration policy under then-Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, and expanded by Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, increased the number of newcomers to Canada. . When the price of oil collapsed in 2015, not only did more immigrants choose to settle in Ontario over Alberta and Saskatchewan, many Canadians who moved to Western Canada for economic opportunities began to return. “When oil crashed in 2015, the flow was reversed,” Moffatt said. “[Ontario’s] The population growth rate almost doubled overnight, but we didn’t actually change the way we built housing that led to the shortage we have today.” He said despite the fact that the federal, provincial and municipal governments are on the same team, none of them saw the current crisis coming. “Unfortunately not, and I think they should,” Moffat said, noting that all three governments need to work better together to prevent these kinds of demographic crises. “It’s kind of the classic Canadian problem where we have three levels of government, they all work on their own and the whole system is uncoordinated. We didn’t really foresee it coming, but it should. There was no excuse not to.”
