US Rep. Cheney, who played a key role in the congressional investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol by Trump supporters, is expected to lose her Wyoming primary to Trump-backed Harriet Hageman, according to polls. The fate of U.S. Sen. Murkowski of Alaska is less clear, as the state’s nonpartisan format allows the top four vote-getters to advance to the Nov. 8 general election, which could bring a potential rematch between Murkowski and Kelly Tshibaka, who is backed by Trump. Sign up now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register Both states are solidly Republican, making it unlikely that either will play a major role in deciding whether President Joe Biden’s Democrats lose their slim majorities in Congress. Republicans are expected to easily retake the House and also have a good chance of winning control of the Senate. A majority in each House of Congress would allow Republicans to stop Biden’s legislative agenda. They are already threatening to launch potentially damaging investigations into his administration if they win. Alaska voters will also decide whether to choose Sarah Palin, a Republican firefighter and former governor who Trump has endorsed for the state’s lone House seat.
CHENEY’S LONG GAME
Cheney, the daughter of Republican former Vice President Dick Cheney, has used her campaign — and her seat on the Jan. 6 committee — to try to keep the focus on Trump’s actions around the Capitol uprising and his continued false claims about fraud in the 2020 election, trying to convince Republicans co-nationals the former president is a threat to democracy. Terry Sullivan, a political strategist who managed Republican Sen. Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign, sees Cheney’s defeat Tuesday as a “foreign conclusion” but sees her efforts as part of a larger battle. “Liz Cheney is not running for re-election, she’s fighting for the direction of the Republican Party,” he said, noting that some observers have debated whether Cheney should launch a presidential campaign in 2024. “It’s more of a beginning, not an end.” Two recent polls show the challenge facing Cheney, whose relentless criticism of Trump as an existential threat to democracy has alienated many Wyoming Republicans, despite a congressional voting record that has supported Trump’s agenda. Cheney trailed Hageman 52 percent to 30 percent in a July 7-11 survey of likely voters published by Wyoming’s Casper Star-Tribune. A University of Wyoming poll released last week put Hageman’s lead at 29 points. Cheney’s supporters believe she still has a chance if enough Democrats and independents swing by and vote for her, which is allowed in the state’s primary system and whose numbers may not be fully captured in the polls. Jim King, a political science professor at the University of Wyoming, said Cheney’s opponents characterized her Jan. 6 impeachment and committee positions as antithetical to the interests of Wyoming, where Trump won 70 percent of the 2020 vote. . “They all play into the same thing, that ‘he didn’t represent us,’” King said, adding that the solid polling distance shows that Cheney will lose. “I don’t see at this point any reason to question those results.” Cheney was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump over the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Three others have already lost their primaries, four have decided not to run again and two have won their contests. Most of the candidates Trump has endorsed this campaign have won in a sign, his supporters say, of his continued influence in the party as he considers whether to run for office again in 2024. It’s not yet clear what the impact on the midterm elections will be of the FBI’s recovery of top-secret documents at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home as part of an investigation into possible violations of the Espionage Act.
CROSSED VOTES
Cheney’s supporters have drawn some optimism from the state’s voter data, which shows an increase of 11,495 in the number of registered Republicans since the start of the year through Aug. 1, while registered Democrats have fallen by about 6,000. Their hope is that these numbers represent Democrats registering as Republicans as a way to boost Cheney, though Republican turnout is only about 8% of primary turnout in 2018 — not enough to close the electoral gap . Similar to Wyoming, Trump’s endorsements in Republican-leaning Alaska are unlikely to provide an opening for Democrats. But they have elevated Tshibaka, who is trying to take Republican Murkowski’s seat in the Senate. Under new laws that eliminated party primaries and introduced ranked-choice voting, Murkowski is expected to be among the top four vote-getters to advance to the general election, with Tshibaka as her most serious challenger. Murkowski, a moderate who voted to impeach Trump, is considered the front-runner. Sign up now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register Reported by Nathan Layne in Wilton, Connecticut. Editing by Scott Malone, Alistair Bell and Ross Colvin Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
