That injury originally called for a six- to eight-week shutdown from pitching, and the Dodgers certainly hoped Buehler could make a late-September and/or perhaps postseason return. Instead, he won’t compete again until next season at the earliest. Further details are unclear, as the team declined to elaborate on the nature of the process in its initial announcement. Buehler, 28, finished fourth in the National League Cy Young voting last season, but now has a lot of arm issues this season. Once it was clear the forearm strain would limit Buehler for up to three months, he underwent an arthroscopic procedure to remove a bone spur from his elbow — an issue he said has plagued him in recent seasons. Arm issues have limited Buehler to 65 innings in 2022, during which he has posted a 4.02 ERA with a career-low 21.2% strikeout rate. Those are pedestrian numbers by his lofty standards – both roughly in line with league average production among MLB starting pitchers (4.09 ERA, 21.4% strikeout rate). Dating back to his first full big league season in 2018, Buehler has established himself as a rock in the Dodgers’ rotation and one of the most talented arms in the National League. He ranks 23rd in the Majors in innings pitched from 2018-22 — even with this year’s excessive missed time — and also ranks seventh in ERA (2.95), 25th in strikeout rate (27%) and 32nd in walk rate (6.2%) among a field of 152 eligible starting pitchers in that span. For now, Buehler will join both Clayton Kershaw (lower back discomfort) and Dustin May (recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2021) on the injured list. Both May and Kershaw expect to return before the end of the regular season. May recently struck out 10 batters in five innings in his fifth Triple-A start of the season. He has built up to 70 stadiums. Kershaw, meanwhile, recently underwent an epidural injection and has resumed pitching, though there is no immediate timetable for his return to the Major League mound. With that trio on the shelf, the Dodgers will look to Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney and rookie Ryan Pepiot as rotation options — though Pepiot could soon be retired by May. Even without a pair of big names like Kershaw and Buehler, it’s a formidable lineup thanks to the performances of Gonsolin (2.24 ERA, 116 1/3 innings), Anderson (2.81 ERA, 128 1/3 innings) and Heaney ( 1.16 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate in 31 innings). Obviously, not being able to put Buehler in a promising postseason rotation, but the group of Urias, Gonsolin and Kershaw is still a formidable front three, with May, Anderson and Heaney also standing as potential playoff starters of. The larger question for the Dodgers is exactly what Buehler’s recovery and outlook will be in 2023. Even in the event that Buehler required Tommy John surgery and needed to miss most of the 2023 season — which, to be perfectly clear, has not been indicated or even implied by the team — it would still be a lock to bid a contract. The 2022 campaign was the second of a two-year, $8 million deal to buy out Buehler’s first two years of arbitration. He will be arb eligible four times as a Super Two player, meaning he has two raises ahead. Due to his limited workload this year, he will only be due a modest increase in his $4.25 million salary, making it unthinkable for the Dodgers to keep him in the bullpen. That said, the extent of Buehler’s recovery will certainly affect the Dodgers’ offseason direction and inform the level of aggression with which they pursue rotation help. The Dodgers currently see Kershaw, Anderson and Heaney walk as free agents, so they will certainly be in the mix for starting pitching help this offseason.
