The effects of such a conflict would be devastating for food production, climate scientists at Rutgers University found in a study published in the context of the war in Ukraine. “The data tell us one thing: We need to prevent a nuclear war from ever happening,” said one of the authors, Professor Alan Roebuck. The warning comes as “humanity is only one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation,” according to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Image: Russian forces occupy the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant Ukraine’s defense intelligence service warned of new Russian “provocations” at the occupied Zaporizhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine, while a mayor said the town where the power station is located has come under fresh shelling. Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), described the recent bombing of Europe’s largest nuclear plant as “out of control” and “extremely serious”. ‘No basis’ for Zelenskyy-Putin peace talks – watch Ukraine updates live The new study, published in the journal Nature Food, estimated how much sun-blocking soot would enter the atmosphere as a result of storms created by detonating nuclear weapons. They looked at six scenarios involving nuclear arsenals of varying sizes, five based on smaller conflicts between India and Pakistan, and one based on a war between the US and Russia. Even the smallest scenario caused famine, with global average calorie production falling by 7% within five years of the conflict. In the worst-case scenario, a full-scale nuclear conflict, global average caloric output dropped by about 90% between three and four years after the battle. The massive decline in crop yields will cause billions of people to die of starvation, 75% of the world’s population, within two years. According to the researchers, the disruption to global food markets from even the smallest scenario – a 7% drop – would be greater than the largest anomaly ever recorded. Although the study focused precisely on how many calories were produced globally, people also need protein and micronutrients to survive, and these are also likely to be significantly affected. Nuclear war would have an even greater impact on climate change, according to Lili Zia, assistant research professor at Rutgers. “The ozone layer will be destroyed by stratospheric warming, producing more UV radiation at the surface, and we need to understand this impact on food supplies,” he said. Read more: What are the risks of a nuclear accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant? The study uses “modern climate, crop and fisheries models” to “calculate how the world’s food availability could change under various nuclear war scenarios.” It measures how food availability could be affected by export restrictions as well as actual reduced crop yields, and even takes into account countries that reprocess animal feed so that it can be used to feed people. He warns: “Even for a regional nuclear war, large parts of the world could suffer famine.” Curiously, in the scenario the researchers analyzed, one country’s calorie output would either increase or experience only small decreases in the event of a full-scale nuclear war: Australia. The study does not take into account other aspects of the global food supply that would be affected by nuclear war, including the availability of fuel and fertilizers. Such a war could also affect the infrastructure for food production, could increase UV radiation that can affect food production and also lead to radioactive contamination. Use Chrome browser for more accessible video player 0:35 The attacks on a nuclear plant are “suicide”. UK ‘must prepare for nuclear war’ Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, the former head of the British Army’s chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear regiment, told Sky News the report was timely. However, he warned that the report “described the worst possible outcome, basically Armageddon, when all the nuclear weapons have been solved – in my view it is extremely unlikely”. “The number one risk we see in Ukraine right now is an accident in Zaporizhia or a rogue Russian commander using a tactical nuclear weapon,” he added, noting a comment he published in the Daily Telegraph calling on Britain to be more prepared for nuclear war. “The first scenario could of course spread enough radioactive contamination across Russia and Europe, but it would not cause the climate extremes and crop failures described in this report.” He told Sky News he expected Western intelligence agencies to quickly take over the movement of tactical nuclear weapons as they must be transported by launchers on large trucks. “NATO would call them in, and Russia knows that NATO’s long-range missiles could take out these launchers long before they could launch their missiles,” he added. “Since the end of the Cold War, one has felt a certain degree of nuclear complacency, and this exhibition and equipment of the nuclear plants in Ukraine is a stark reminder that nuclear weapons and accidents could change the way we live.”
