New research by climate scientists has found that the risk of a month-long superstorm that will hit both Northern and Southern California with staggering amounts of rain and snow is rising rapidly due to human-caused global warming. The chance each year of one happening is already about one in 50, the study estimates. And the probability continues to increase the more we pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Warmer air holds more moisture, which means atmospheric rivers — the storms that sweep in from the Pacific and are sometimes called “Pineapple Express” events — can carry larger rainfall payloads. California has been hit by giant storms fueled by atmospheric rivers in the past. A particularly devastating one in 1861-62 turned the Central Valley into an inland sea, and Sacramento flooded so badly that Gov. Leland Stanford had to row a boat to his inaugural events in January 1862, according to the Sacramento History Museum. The state legislature also temporarily moved to San Francisco. The state has since dammed its rivers and built diversions to divert floodwaters away from population centers. If this 19th century storm were to hit today, all this infrastructure would make it less likely to cause disaster. However, the state is also much more developed—with bigger cities, more valuable farms and businesses, and many more people—which means the consequences can be even greater. If there’s any good news to report on any of this, it’s that many planners and policymakers are aware of the risks. As I wrote in The New York Times on Friday, the Department of Water Resources plans to use the new scientific findings to inform the state’s flood plans. With the help of supercomputers, they will map in detail how all that precipitation will flow through waterways and over land. California is also working to strengthen levees in urban areas of the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys to provide protection against 200-year storms, or those with a 0.5 percent chance of occurring each year. As I found while reporting this interactive story, however, there is another side to all these preparations, which is that they have turned the risk of flooding into something many Californians never think about. On one level, this is progress: Most of us have better things to do each day than worry about nature’s wrath. But there are also dangers in not thinking you live in a danger zone. You may ignore evacuation orders, downplay storm forecasts, deny flood insurance. “When the government gets involved with these levees, most homeowners think we’re doing the right thing and that it’s safe for them to put their savings into a house,” Ricardo Pineda, a retired engineer for the state, told me. as we recently toured Sacramento’s flood management projects. “They like to walk their dogs on the levees,” Pineda said. But “are they prepared for the economic consequences of New Orleans-style flooding?” In Lathrop, near Stockton, the planned community of River Islands is located in an area on the San Joaquin River that was severely flooded during a storm in 1997. The developer built very large levees, without using state funds, to protect the charming houses and neat streets. Susan Dell’Osso, president of River Islands Development, told me many of her buyers were from the Bay Area, and she asked tough questions about schools and life in the Central Valley. “They never ask questions about flooding,” Dell’Osso said. He tries to educate them about it, he said. But “they don’t even realize, I think, that there’s a danger.”
If you read a story, make it this one
Prospective candidates, donors and activists are already actively plotting what the race to succeed Nancy Pelosi would look like — albeit almost entirely in secret.
What we eat
Taco recipes for the tastiest (and easiest) summer party.
Where we travel
Today’s tip comes from Jack Flanders, who lives in Arlington, Texas. Jack recommends Big Bear: “With a beautiful lake and mountains, lots of places for hiking, fishing and lots of water activities, also lots of live music and good restaurants. And you never know who you might see having lunch or strolling through the village. I can’t beat Big Bear.” Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Send your suggestions to [email protected] We will share more in future editions of the newsletter.
And before you go, some good news
In June, an image of a crumbling sky-blue structure with wooden windows appeared in an online magazine article about abandoned homes in the heart of the Mojave Desert. The house was once the home of Melody Gutierrez, now a reporter for the Los Angeles Times. Gutierrez recently wrote about growing on five acres in the desert, catching iguanas and rattlesnakes. In 1990, her parents moved her and her two siblings into a 714-square-foot house in Wonder Valley, just east of Twentynine Palms, to try to secure a safer and more affordable life. Gutierrez and her siblings walked half a mile to a bus stop to get to school. Her family carved their names into concrete they poured on the front patio. They took short showers because there wasn’t always money to fill the water tank perched on the roof. But after seven years, they drifted apart. And Gutierrez never returned to where she grew up — until last year. When Gutierrez revisited the blue house, she found her old Barbie among the wreckage. She spotted a sign her father had painted and recognized the blinds he had put up. It evoked feelings he hadn’t expected. Childhood homes, especially those lived between the ages of 5 and 12, tend to have a particularly strong appeal, with adults wanting to revisit them, Jerry Berger, a retired professor of psychology at Santa Clara University, told Gutierrez. “It looks like these are key years,” he said. “For many people their identity is tied to that place, to that time.” Read more at the Los Angeles Times. Thanks for reading. We will be back tomorrow. PS Here’s today’s Mini Crossword and a clue: Mixed porridge (5 letters).
