But for all their similarities, the political fortunes of U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming are poised to diverge Tuesday when each is on the ballot in closely watched primaries closely. Cheney faces daunting prospects in her bid to fend off Trump-backed Harriet Hagman, looking increasingly to a life beyond Capitol Hill that could include a possible presidential campaign. Murkowski, however, is expected to advance from her primary and is already planning to run in the November general election. The expected results stem at least in part from the differentiated policy of each state. Wyoming is a Republican stronghold, giving Trump his strongest win of any state in the 2020 campaign. Alaska, meanwhile, has a history of rewarding candidates with an independent streak. But Murkowski enjoys an added advantage in the way Alaska’s elections are going this year. Party primaries, like the one Cheney is facing, have been replaced by a voter-approved process in which all candidates run together. The top four vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election in which ranked-choice voting will be used. Murkowski benefits from avoiding the Republican primary, “which she would have had a zero percent — I mean zero percent — chance of winning,” said Alaska pollster Ivan Moore. Murkowski has 18 candidates in her primary, the most prominent being Republican Kelly Tshibaka, whom Trump has endorsed. The Alaska Democratic Party, meanwhile, has endorsed Pat Chesbrough, a retired educator. In an interview, Murkowski insisted she would be among the candidates to advance from the primaries and said her success requires, in part, coalition building. “That’s my strong suit, that’s what I do,” he said. For his part, Trump was harsh in his assessment of Murkowski. At a rally in Anchorage last month with Tshibaka and Sarah Palin, whom he has endorsed for Alaska’s sole House seat, he called Murkowski “the worst. I rate her as the No. 1 evil.” Trump took part in a phone call for Tshibaka on Thursday, while Murkowski mingled with supporters at a campaign office opening in Juneau that boasted a spread that included moose chili and smoked salmon dip. Murkowski said Trump is not a factor in her campaign. “He’s going to do what he’s going to do,” he said. But he told supporters the campaign would be challenging. Murkowski was criticized by Alaska Republican Party leaders last year for numerous grievances, including casting a no-confidence vote and speaking critically of Trump and her support for Interior Secretary Deb Haaland’s nomination. Tuckerman Babcock, a former state Republican Party chairman who is running for state Senate, said Murkowski lost the support of many Alaska Republicans, which he called “a political reality for many years.” Alaska Republicans are “almost unanimous in their opposition to Lisa Murkowski,” he said. “Are they divided on other issues? Of course.” Babcock said the new election system allows candidates to “self-identify” with a party and is not an improvement over the old party’s primary process. Chuck Cope, a Republican former state legislator, is optimistic about the new system. Kopp lost his 2020 Republican primary after being part of a bipartisan state House majority made up mostly of Democrats. “It’s just the fringe that sticks like a death grip on a failed paradigm, and that paradigm is extreme partisanship at all costs,” he said. “I think Alaska is going to take the lead in moving away from that. That’s what I hope.” Kopp said that while he didn’t always support Murkowski, she was “fearless when it counts for this country.” “I think he’s shown that cults of personality are not conservative, conspiracy theories are not conservative, and treating politics like religion is not conservative,” Kopp said. He said he believes Murkowski has more support across Alaska than party activists are giving her credit for. The Senate seat has been held by a Murkowski since 1981. Before Lisa Murkowski, it was her father, Republican Frank Murkowski. He appointed his daughter to succeed him in 2002 after he became governor. Murkowski won the seat on her own in 2004. Murkowski has not won 50% of the vote in a general election for the Senate, and having to build a coalition of support is nothing new for her. He won a write-in campaign in 2010 after losing that year’s Republican primary to tea party favorite Joe Miller. Murkowski overwhelmingly won her Republican primary against little-known opponents in 2016, the year Trump was elected. Rosita Worl, an Alaska Native leader, referred to the 2010 primary as “the failure” and said Alaska Natives rallied around Murkowski and her write-in bid. Worl, who attended Murkowski’s campaign event in Juneau, said she is not a Republican herself but sees Murkowski as an Alaskan and said the senator has “always stood up for our issues.” State Rep. Zack Fields, a Democrat seeking re-election to a legislative seat in Anchorage, said there are yards in his district with signs for him and Murkowski. He said he doesn’t agree with Murkowski on “the majority of the votes she’s cast in her career.” “But he has shown that he believes in democracy and will work with the people to achieve things that are right for the people. That’s really at risk right now,” he said. Fields called the riot “terrifying.” “But what was frankly scarier than that is that so many elected officials and high-ranking so-called leaders would condone it, justify it and otherwise encourage those who threaten democracy,” he said. Cheney is the vice chairman of the House Select Committee investigating the rebellion on Capitol Hill. The rebellion was a big topic during a debate in June between Cheney and Republican challengers, including Hageman. Hageman said the commission “didn’t focus on things that are important to the people of Wyoming.” Entering the final stretch of her primary campaign, Cheney didn’t back down. She posted a video Thursday with a final message that reinforces her criticism of Trump. “The lie that the 2020 presidential election was stolen is insidious,” Cheney said. “It preys on those who love their country. It is a door that Donald Trump has opened to manipulate Americans into abandoning their principles, sacrificing their freedom, justifying violence, ignoring the decisions of our courts and the rule of law.” He added: “This is Donald Trump’s legacy, but it cannot be the future of our nation.” In the interview, Murkowski said Cheney showed courage. “I think he looked at it and said, this is not Liz Cheney,” Murkowski said. “It’s about the difference between right and wrong. And she does her job under very difficult conditions. But I think he’s doing it because he thinks he has to.”
