The dramatic drop in immigration from the EU has hit hospitality and support services hard. But the Migration Observatory (MO) at the University of Oxford and ReWage, an independent think tank, said that while Brexit “exacerbated” Britain’s chronic labor shortages, it was not the only cause. The data shows that just 43,000 EU citizens received visas for work, family, study or other purposes in 2021, a fraction of the 230,000 to 430,000 EU citizens coming to the UK annually in the six years to March 2020, according to the National Statistical Service. (ONS) estimates. Of those who immigrated – as opposed to traveling for business or pleasure – to the UK in 2021, EU citizens accounted for just 5% of the number of visas issued. “The evidence available so far is therefore consistent with the possibility of a large reduction in EU immigration,” says the report, titled “The End of Free Movement and Low-Wage Labor in the UK”. But he cautions against blaming Brexit for the UK’s high number of vacancies, with the pandemic, early retirement among the over-50s, high levels of employment across Europe and international labor shortages also contributing. “While there is some evidence that the end of free movement has contributed to shortages in some areas of the UK labor market, it is by no means the only driver. In fact, recruitment difficulties are not unique to the UK and several other countries have experienced high vacancy rates following the pandemic,” said Chris Forde, a professor at the University of Leeds and co-author of the ReWage report. The report found that hospitality and lower-skilled sectors were hardest hit by the end of free movement of EU citizens in the UK. Hospitality lost 98,000 EU jobs in the two years to June 2021 and support services, including cleaning and maintenance, fell by 64,000 EU workers. Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you to the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morning Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. “While it is clear that ending free movement has made it harder for employers in low-wage industries to recruit staff, changing immigration policy to address shortages brings its own challenges,” said Madeleine Sumption, director of MO. The report found that some sectors had adapted to changes in immigration, but noted that filling low-paid vacancies would still be a problem. Sumption described immigration as “a bit of a blunt instrument”, noting that it was “surprisingly difficult to measure shortages and work out how to target immigration policy towards them”. Home Office statistics show there has been a sharp rise in immigration amid the easing of pandemic restrictions. The figures show that 277,069 work-related visas were granted in the year ending March 2022 (including dependents), a 129% increase in the year ending March 2021 and a 50% increase in the year ending March 2020. Analysis of wage workers by nationality over a longer period, between July 2014 and June 2021, showed that agriculture was also hit hard, losing 28% of EU workers, followed by hospitality at 25% and support services at 14% . The biggest fall in employment in the EU was in London, with a 10% drop overall and a 30% drop in the hospitality sector alone between June 2019 and June 2021. In several sectors, including construction and health, the number of non-EU nationals increased, but the report warns that these may not necessarily be workers arriving via the visa route and may be drawn from the existing non-EU population in the UK who reached the family visas or refugee route. Sumption said many other factors affected supply and demand, including tax, the minimum wage, education and training and decisions about shortfall lists. Empirical data collected by the ONS suggests that the highest vacancy rates are in Scotland and London. The report says there are “competing explanations” for the increase in vacancies, with the decision of people in their 50s to leave the workforce early “the most important factor in reducing the size of the labor force compared to what might have been expected . for the pre-pandemic trends”.
