The Office for Students has predicted a significant increase in applicants rejected by their preferred universities after examination boards were ordered to combat rising grade inflation. Even the brightest students who would normally “not dream” of losing the terms of their university offer may struggle this year because results will fall below the grades predicted by teachers, the warden told The Telegraph. The students who received their A-level results on Thursday had never sat public exams before, as the year they were due to sit their GCSEs was 2020, when all exams were canceled due to the pandemic, meaning it was more difficult for teachers to make accurate predictions. According to one analysis, around 40,000 young people are expected to lose their preferred jobs. The fallout from this year’s exams will be the latest blow to a generation of young people who have seen their education severely disrupted by Covid, which has included two extended periods of school closures. John Blake, director of fair access and participation at the Office for Students, said it was “only fair” to give A-Level students early warning to avoid a “shock” on results day. “Ofqual wants to lower the grading but if you compare it to – certainly what I’ve seen – some schools’ predicted grades, they’ve accepted that generally those results will go down but not necessarily for them,” Mr Blake told The Telegraph. “This could lead to many students feeling quite frustrated on the day when their grades don’t match the grades they expected. And I think it’s important that people prepare a little bit for that and recognize that.”
Record numbers rejected by top institutions
With students facing the most competitive admissions round in decades, research has found that record numbers of British students are being turned down by the UK’s most selective institutions, including Oxford and Cambridge, in favor of their counterparts abroad who pay much higher fees . Four out of ten British applicants who applied to top universities this summer were rejected, the highest rate ever recorded. In the past two years students have received predicted grades, resulting in rampant grade inflation and a record number of top graders. Last summer 44.8 per cent of students got an A* or A grade at A-level. This compared to 38.5 per cent in 2020, when a controversial algorithm was scrapped in favor of predicted grades. Before the pandemic, about a quarter of students were awarded top grades each year, most recently 25.2 percent in 2019. This year exam boards have been told by Ofqual, the exams watchdog, to combat inflation by ensuring the number of top grades is halfway between those of 2021 and 2019. Mr Blake said the approach failed to prevent teachers giving their pupils generous predicted scores which were likely to be much higher than their actual results. He said this would result in more students ending up in liquidation after losing their offers, including the brightest students applying for highly competitive courses such as medicine and dentistry. However, figures released on Sunday showed a plunge in the number of Russell Group courses in liquidation, with 2,358 courses available compared to 3,085 at the same time last year. Mr Blake said: “Whatever happens I think there will be a lot of volatility and people need to be prepared for that. And I think it’s fair to tell students that so it’s not a shock to them. “This will also include some of the most skilled [students]. We know that the most selective courses are competitive – they always are – but this year it will be even more so. “There will be students who in a normal year wouldn’t dream of having a problem, they might well need to think about it.”
First time in public exams
Mr Blake pointed out that this year’s A-level cohort had never had public exams before, after their GCSEs were canceled at the start of the pandemic in 2020. His warning follows analysis by Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Center for Education and Employment, which found that tens of thousands of “painfully disappointed” A-Level students are expected to lose their university offers this year as 80,000 fewer top grades will be awarded. Demand for places has soared due to an increase in the number of 18-year-olds in the UK population as well as more applications from mature students. Meanwhile, universities have fewer places to offer this year after a surge in recruitment during the pandemic, when they were forced to accept more students than planned. And at the same time, universities are making an increasing number of offers to overseas students, who pay much higher fees than their British counterparts. “We know from the clear evidence that there are very few of the top courses at the top universities available,” Professor Smithers said. “This is a very competitive year anyway for three other reasons. Universities actively recruit overseas students for their tuition fees. Then we have an increase in the 18 year old population and more of them want to go to university. “And a lot of people who were sitting at home during the lockdown started thinking ‘what do I want to do with my life?’ This appears to have led to a boost in applications from mature students.”
