In what promises to be one of the most competitive rounds of university admissions in recent memory, analysis by DataHE found that the total number of 18-year-olds not holding an offer has risen from around 16,000 at this stage of the admissions process in 2019 to 27,850 in 2022. Part of the increase is because there are more applicants than ever before, but experts say it’s also likely due to rising rejection rates and more conservative offers from high-fee institutions looking to rein in recruitment after the excesses of the pandemic. According to Mark Corver, the co-founder of DataHE, the risk of candidates not having a single offer at this point has increased from 6% to 9% over two years, a 50% jump proportionally, back to the levels seen last time. time when universities had to stay within control numbers. “This is going to feel like a big shock after nearly a decade of steadily improving your odds of getting an offer,” Corver said. His warning came as England’s exams regulator Ofqual and university admissions agency Ucas sent an unprecedented letter to all A-level students to try to reassure them as tension builds ahead of results day on Thursday. The letter says nearly 300,000 British 18-year-olds have a firm offer, an increase of 7,000 on last year and the highest on record, with 30,000 courses available to clear. However, there is still a huge amount of uncertainty. After two years of higher-than-average grades during the pandemic – when exams were canceled and work assessed by teachers – the government asked regulators to set limits so that grades were halfway between those in 2019 and 2021, with grades returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Last week it was reported that tens of thousands of A-level students with offers from their preferred university could be at risk of losing their places due to a predicted 10 percentage point drop in the number of A and A* grades in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. After record results last year, when 44.8% of grades were either A or A* at A level, industry experts estimate that with the government recalibration this will drop to 35% (from 25.5% in 2019). While almost one in five (19.1%) grades were A* last year, this year the figure is expected to drop to 13.5%. Similarly, the number of A* to C grades is expected to fall from 88.5% in 2021 to 82%. Corver said students, even those without offers, shouldn’t be overly concerned. “There are places, but they may be in universities or for subjects that may not have been on the original candidate list and may require some research and flexibility to take advantage of them.” Universities receiving A-level results on Friday night confirmed there is still capacity but warned clearing would be busy and said students may need to consider related subjects and alternative institutions to secure a place. Meanwhile, Ucas has disputed DataHE’s analysis – which is based on Ucas data on the number of students who “can be freely placed in clearance”. Clare Marchant, the chief executive of Ucas, said a record number of 18-year-olds applied this year and her figures showed that more than 97% of those students received at least one offer, which was also a record. “There are many reasons why students are eligible to find a place in the clearing. In some cases, students, who are extremely intelligent and constantly evaluate their options, increasingly see clearing as a great option to get a place. “The vast majority of universities and colleges will have courses available this week and my advice to students who don’t have a place is to continue your research and contact Ucas if you need support in clearing.” Alix Delaney, head of admissions at the University of East Anglia, said: “We expect it to be a very busy clearance with lots of activity and many universities with vacancies. “While there may be some disappointment for those who have applied to highly competitive courses, I think there is still potential across the system for students to get a place at a university if they want to go study this September. “They may just have to think about related courses, subjects or alternative universities.” The Ministry of Education has been contacted for comment.
