(Video: The Washington Post) Placeholder when loading article actions Just before 3:20 p.m. on August 9, Nikolai Abbasov, a resident of Saki, near the western Black Sea coast of Crimea, heard an explosion. Walking to his window, he caught a cloud of smoke rising in the distance. Around the same time, a Russian influencer, Diana Andreeva, was enjoying the beach in nearby Novofedorivka when she turned her camera to capture the cloud, rising from Saki Air Base, home to the Russian Navy’s 43rd Independent Naval Attack Aviation Regiment . Annexed by Russia in 2014 Source: Audit data August 10 via Institute for Study of War About 50 minutes later, both would record two massive explosions at the base, capping an alleged attack by Ukraine that killed at least one person and wounded 13 others, according to Russian officials. The explosions destroyed or significantly damaged at least eight military aircraft and damaged parts of the facility, according to defense sources, military analysts and a review of satellite imagery. If Ukraine was responsible, the attack would be one of its most daring in the war, played out in front of residents and tourists deep in Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014. To better understand what happened at Saki, The Washington Post analyzed more than two dozen videos, spoke with eyewitnesses and consulted eight military and geospatial experts, confirming that at least six explosions rocked the base over the course of nearly an hour. The unnamed Ukrainian officials said the attack was carried out by the country’s special forces or rebel fighters known as “partisans,” but gave few details. Resistance fighters are active in Kherson, which neighbors Crimea to the north, where they have been accused of killings. A senior Pentagon official on Friday told reporters that Ukraine chose the target and that the Defense Department had not determined what weapons were used. News release on Pentagon website does not attribute attack on Ukraine. Russia said the incident stemmed from the accidental detonation of munitions at the site — a theory The Post’s analysis does not rule out. Crimean leader Sergei Aksyonov raised the terror threat level to “yellow” but did not comment on Ukraine’s possible involvement. Significant damage regions Source: Tony Roper, Janes Satellite image ©2022 Planet Labs Significant damage regions Source: Tony Roper, Janes, Satellite image ©2022 Planet Labs Significant damage regions Source: Tony Roper, Janes, Satellite image ©2022 Planet Labs Ukraine’s vague explanations have inspired various theories from analysts, including that special forces planted explosives at the base or used drones to launch or deliver bombs, or that the country’s military used a precision weapon with a range beyond the systems that it is known to work. Experts said The Post’s analysis raises questions about how any attack was carried out and whether it benefited from secondary explosions caused by fires at the base. “The question remains: How many of these explosions were caused by independent events, versus a chain effect of an initial explosive device or fuel that then caught another fuel or fire?” said Dara Massicot, senior policy researcher at the Rand Corp.
“The sky is pitch black” The Post syncs videos and images shared on social media confirming at least half a dozen explosions at Saki Air Force Base. Witnesses told The Post they heard more. Shortly before 3:20 p.m., Abbasov blew away the smoke from the first explosion spotted by The Post. “It just hit so hard – it made my bed shake,” she says in the video. The footage matched accounts from other witnesses and a statement from the Russian Defense Ministry that said “several aircraft munitions were detonated in a closed storage area” at “approximately 3.20 p.m.” Andreeva, the influencer, filmed that initial explosion and posted an edited video showing multiple explosions, along with her reactions, on Instagram. Another explosion was recorded minutes later. A video, taken north of the base, briefly captures a small flash. Less than a second later a fireball explodes and then turns into a mushroom cloud. The Post confirmed the sequence of explosions by examining smoke and corroborating the timeline with multiple witnesses. (Video: Mash via Telegram) Residents and beachgoers in Novofedorivka filmed the same explosion. (Video: Instagram and Telegram) Photographer Dmitry Filatov was at home in Novofedorivka when he heard a boom. After the second, he left to check on his grandfather, who lives near the air base. “On the way back, the third explosion happened as I was walking by the neighboring building,” Filatov told The Post. “The shock wave blew out the windows of the building and they flew towards us.” At 3:44 p.m., Abbasov photographed a small cloud rising from a bed of smoke, which he described as the result of another explosion. Video taken from a nearby residential building captured the same cloud, as well as a separate explosion. At approximately 4:11 p.m., Abbasov recorded the aftermath of two massive explosions. A Post analysis of other footage shows the bursts occurred a fraction of a second apart, suggesting one may have triggered the other, known as a sympathetic burst, according to Justin Bronk, a senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute. (Video: Telegram and Nikolay Abbasov) Andreeva also filmed the twin explosions and confirmed they happened at about 4:11 p.m. “They just keep getting stronger and stronger,” she says in her Instagram video. “The sky is pitch black.” Other videos showed the two fireballs turning into smoke and rising into the sky. Satellite images reviewed by The Post confirmed significant damage to at least four locations on the base that analysts say were likely used for storage. It also showed that the fires had burned extensively at the base and had crept towards Novofedorivka. The planes were damaged despite being parked inside protective walls known as liners. Despite the hefty price tag, analysts said the airport remains operational. Videos and photos reviewed by The Post showed burned windows and damaged homes in the city. Experts consulted by The Post agreed that no evidence fully explained what happened Tuesday. But video and satellite analysis offer clues. Massicot, which reviewed images taken in May, said it found the base regularly stored ammunition or other supplies near or in aircraft parking areas, a vulnerability Ukraine says it may have detected. “Targeting storage security issues, whatever caused this explosion was capable of causing significant damage to fixed-wing fighter aircraft,” he said. In an assessment released on Friday, the UK Ministry of Defense said it had not confirmed “the initial cause of the explosions” but that “the large mushroom clouds seen on eyewitness video were almost certainly from the explosion to four uncovered ammunition storage areas.’ Bronk said the delay between explosions at the base made it unlikely that rockets were responsible for all the damage. A more plausible scenario, he said, was that Ukrainian forces were close enough to fly drones and could either drop small munitions or fly directly at targets, causing wider explosions. “You can almost imagine the bad damage control,” he said. Mark F. Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the damage to the planes in the covers suggests they could have been targeted. An analysis carried out by defense intelligence provider Janes also estimated that the airbase was likely hit by “relatively large munitions”. The base is more than 140 miles from the nearest front line, and Cancian acknowledged that nothing known to be used by Ukraine explained what happened at the airfield. There are no videos available showing missiles moving towards the base. “All the indicators are not pointing in one direction,” Cancian told The Post. “It’s such a mystery.” Atthar Mirza contributed to this report.
