The US assesses that these remaining members are not involved in planning external attacks and that the group as a whole “does not have the capability to launch attacks against the US or its interests abroad from Afghanistan”. Despite the new assessment, tough questions remain about whether the risk could increase over time, US officials told CNN. Concerns also remain about whether terrorist activity originating in Afghanistan could spread beyond the country’s borders and that the US could be blind to it given reduced intelligence capabilities inside Afghanistan. The new assessment also warns that al-Qaeda “has several affiliates that we believe it would call outside the region to drive potential plots.” National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said the US “will continue to be vigilant, along with our partners, to defend our nation and ensure that Afghanistan never again becomes a safe haven for terrorism.” “We demonstrated our commitment to this last month when we removed the leader of al Qaeda from the battlefield. In doing so, we have shown that, with no US forces on the ground in Afghanistan and at risk, we remain able to identify and track down even the world’s most wanted terrorist and then take action.” Despite the successful drone attack on Zawahiri this month, the fact that a key al Qaeda leader was living in Kabul — with the Taliban’s knowledge, U.S. officials said — immediately raised questions about whether al Qaeda was using Afghanistan again. as a safe haven. He also raised questions about the quality of US intelligence-gathering capabilities, which have declined since the US withdrawal. The new intelligence assessment also represents a sharp departure from predictions made a year ago by senior U.S. intelligence and defense officials, who said al Qaeda could regroup in Afghanistan and pose a threat to the U.S. in in one to two years. “The current assessment is probably conservatively one to two years for al Qaeda to develop some capability to at least threaten the homeland,” Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said last September. As CNN previously reported, US officials believe al Qaeda is still gauging its ability to operate under Taliban rule and in the short term will likely remain focused on maintaining its safe haven rather than planning external operations. FBI Director Chris Wray continued to express concern about the potential threat. “I’m concerned about the possibility of seeing al Qaeda regroup,” he told Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-South Carolina, during a congressional hearing earlier this month. Asked if he was concerned about an attack on the homeland “coming from places like Afghanistan,” Wray said, “We are. Especially now that we’re out, I’m concerned about potential loss of sources and collection there.”
