The primaries come as Trump is making gains across the country in his bid to rid Congress of Republicans who have crucified him. And polls have shown his favorite in the race, Kelly Tshibaka, ahead of the primary pack.
But observers say Murkowski shouldn’t worry too much just yet. Alaska’s new election system that features an all-party primary followed by a ranked-choice vote in the general election means the moderate senator is guaranteed to advance Tuesday even if she isn’t the top vote-getter. And the system could work in her favor in November as well.
“He can’t lose anything, and we think the electorate will skew more than the general, and we think the electorate will be more partisan across the board,” said John-Henry Heckendorn, an Alaska-based political consultant. , referring to next week’s primary.
That will likely change in November, he said.
“The bar is low for Murkowski in the primary because she is likely to be favored, one would imagine, by a larger and less partisan electorate in the general population.”
But the race will likely be seen as another test of Trump’s influence, and Murkowski, who is the only one of seven senators who voted to impeach the former president for re-election this year, is not favored to come in first on Tuesday.
Trump traveled to Alaska last month to hold a rally for Tshibaka, former governor and congressional candidate Sarah Palin and current Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R). The former president took the opportunity to blast Murkowski for her vote during his impeachment trial last year.
“Vote for my impeachment. And I did more for this state than any president in history. And this piece,” he said, before mouthing the word “rubbish” to the crowd, “voted to impeach me!”
Trump’s support for Tshibaka also appears to be felt among the state’s grassroots conservatives. The conservative women’s group Maggie’s List endorsed Tshibaka over the GOP incumbent late last year, citing recommendations from state party chairs.
“A lot of the reason for this had to do with Kelly’s strong, conservative values ​​and how she reflected the values ​​of Maggie’s List as an organization,” said Tina Ramirez, Maggie’s List spokeswoman.
But Murkowski only needs to finish in the top four on Tuesday to advance to a general election. And other Republicans are less convinced that Tshibaka will be able to oust Murkowski, who has a large footprint in the state.
“I don’t think Tshibaka would be part of the conversation if it weren’t for Trump’s support,” said one national Republican strategist. “It’s a state that Trump won by a pretty wide margin.”
But, the general added, “I wouldn’t say he’s as popular there as he is in other places.”
The quarterback noted Murkowski’s strong campaign as an asset to her transition in November. She is well known in the state and has a significant fundraising advantage. Murkowski collected $1.7 million in the second quarter of the year to Tshibaka’s $587,000.
Murkowski has also defied the odds in the political arena before, overcoming a 2010 primary loss with a write-in campaign.
“There is no better politician in Alaska than Murkowski,” the general said. “He’ll do whatever it takes to win.”
Additionally, Murkowski has a relatively solid approval rating in her home state. According to data released by Morning Consult, 46 percent of Alaska voters say they approve of Murkowski’s job performance while 39 percent say they disapprove.
Alaska’s new ranked-choice voting system could also benefit Murkowski, a frequent surprise vote in the Senate that has had crossover resonance.
A candidate needs more than 50 percent of the vote to be declared the final winner. If the first candidate does not have this percentage of the vote, the candidate with the fewest votes that round is removed from the ballot and those who ranked that candidate first will have their votes cast on their second choice. The process continues until a candidate scores over 50 percent.
Observers say Murkowski is likely to be the one to rally independents, Democrats and centrist Republicans in the coming rounds.
An Alaska Survey Research poll presented a hypothetical general election between Murkowski, Tshibaka, Democrat Patricia Chesboro and Alaska Independence Party candidate Dustin Darden. It showed Tshibaka leading the first two rounds of voting, but Murkowski leading Tshibaka by 4 points in the third and final round.
The Morning Consult poll found that 62 percent of Democrats and 41 percent of independents say they approve of Murkowski’s performance.
“For Murkowski, I’m not going to say it’s a done deal and nobody’s taking it for granted, but without a serious Democrat in this race, she has all the room she needs to her left to get the votes she needs in the second or third round,” the GOP national strategist said.
But ranked-choice voting is a new concept in Alaska, and experts aren’t sure how it will play out.
“We know some people will turn down this opportunity, but we don’t know at what rate,” Heckendorn said. “These are the questions that will really have an impact on how Lisa Murkowski’s election shakes out.”
One hint could be a special election held Tuesday to fill the state at-large seat previously held by the late Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska). It will be conducted by ranked voting.
Republican candidates for Young’s seat include former vice president and former governor Sarah Palin and Nicholas, while Democrats include former Senate candidate Al Gross and Mary Peltola.
GOP report hits Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal, looks at midterm review Man fatally shoots himself after crashing into Capitol barricade, authorities say Palin has fallen behind Begić and Peltola in several recent polls, despite receiving Trump’s official endorsement. And ranked choice could benefit a candidate like Begich, since a traditional primary would have created a more conservative base that would likely rally around Palin.
“This is the first time in Alaska’s history that we will really understand how the electorate behaves in a ranked-choice election environment,” Heckendorn said. “What we’ll learn about Murkowski’s race is what we can glean from the special congressional elections.”
– Updated at 11:09 am