That’s a possible takeaway from the scandal involving Donald Trump over his alleged hoarding of secret government documents nearly two years after his re-election loss to Joe Biden. If Trump was previously thought likely to announce a comeback bid in 2024, one school of thought is that the FBI’s search of his Florida property, which allows Trump to portray himself as a witness, makes that decision all but certain. “I thought he was going to run before — I’m stronger in my belief now,” Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham told Fox News. If Trump does run, the theory goes, then surely so does Biden. Despite being the oldest man ever in the job at 79, Biden sees it as his historic mission to rid the United States of Trump. Get The Times of Israel Daily Edition by email and never miss our top stories By signing up, you agree to the terms And so, after surviving the tense, at times nightmarish 2020 election, Americans may be doing it all over again. This time it would be the other way around – the incumbent a then 81-year-old Biden and the challenger a 78-year-old Trump. Donald Trump supporters, members of the media and law enforcement gather near Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., Tuesday, Aug. 9, 2022. (Meghan McCarthy/The Palm Beach Post via AP) Given Trump’s constant lies about winning the 2020 election and the search for evidence of his role in igniting the January 6 violent attack on Congress, a rematch would be ugly. “If you think Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns were bad, you haven’t seen anything,” said American University history professor Alan Lichtman, a leading authority on the US presidential election.
Good for both sides?
For practitioners of the dark political arts, the FBI raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort is a game-changing moment that, ironically, could benefit both sides. For Biden, the logic is obvious. The Republican Party’s biggest name is on the ropes, facing not only the FBI investigation, but legal cases tied to allegations of everything from election tampering to fraud and rape. That’s embarrassing for Republicans and energizing for Biden’s Democrats, who increasingly dream of averting a predicted wipeout, or even pulling off a surprise victory of their own, in November’s midterm elections to decide control of Congress. “Trump is like a steroid boost for Democrats,” Jim Kessler, at the Democratic think tank Third Way, told The Hill. As the pro-Republican Wall Street Journal editorial board says: Republicans “should hold the midterm referendum on Mr. Biden’s first two years. Democrats would rather talk until November — really, until the end of the year — about Mr. Trump.” An aerial view of President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate is pictured, Wednesday, Aug. 10, 2022, in Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Helber) However, Trump will also see benefits. Once again he dominates the national psyche, while his fervent base has fueled a new conspiracy theory, lighting up right-wing social media with calls to arms and threats of Civil War 2.0. “Donald Trump has more than $100 million in his political war chest. But he has something even more valuable — an active FBI investigation against him,” wrote Richard Lowry, editor of the conservative National Review magazine. “It has put him front and center again. It has made it easy for him to portray himself as a victim in a conflict.”
Trump’s choice, Biden’s strategy
In a Republican primary, Trump’s political footprint will likely crush stronger opponents. “If Trump wants it at this point, I don’t see how it’s not his,” Republican political strategist John Thomas told Politico. “It will be a coronation.” And Trump’s entry would also effectively trigger Biden’s decision to follow — silencing any thoughts he may privately have of stepping aside for a younger personality before 2024. “Trump is the critical first mover of whether or not there is a rematch,” said Lara Brown, director of the Graduate School of Political Administration at George Washington University. “I think President Biden is waiting to see if Trump will declare, and if he does, I think he’ll also declare very quickly after that.” Voters may not want any man. A July poll by NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ found that 60 percent said Biden should not run in 2024, and 57 percent said the same about Trump. Biden backs himself against Trump. “In the next election, I’d be very lucky to have the same guy running against me,” Biden said in March. US President Joe Biden answers questions from reporters as he walks to board Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., on his way to Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, his home after the latest COVID-19 self-isolation , on August 7. 2022. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta) Although it has been a difficult year for Biden, the past two months have seen him turn his presidency around, scoring notable legislative and policy successes. And though Biden remains deeply unpopular, with approval ratings hovering around 40 percent, an improved record in the White House and widespread outrage over the Supreme Court’s overturning of national abortion rights leave advisers optimistic. So while Republicans get lost in Trump drama, Democrats will focus on kitchen table issues, an aide said. “It’s about meeting people where they live and the things that matter most in their lives,” the aide said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “There’s going to be a lot of stuff that’s going to be in the news, but we’re going to talk to people in their lives.” You are a devoted reader We are really glad that you read X Times of Israel articles last month. That’s why we started the Times of Israel ten years ago – to provide discerning readers like you with must-read coverage of Israel and the Jewish world. So now we have a request. Unlike other media, we have not set up a paywall. But because the journalism we do is expensive, we invite readers to whom The Times of Israel has become important to help support our work by joining The Times of Israel Community. For just $6 a month you can support our quality journalism while enjoying the ADS-FREE Times of Israel, as well as access to exclusive content available only to members of the Times of Israel Community. Thank you, David Horovitz, founding editor of the Times of Israel Join our community Join our community Already a member? Sign in to stop seeing this
