While it is too early to predict the weather for this winter, anything short of significant rainfall could see London put into much tougher measures next year, experts told the Observer. A Whitehall source told officials to prepare for a possible severe drought across the south-east. Drought is divided into four categories: prolonged drought, drought, severe drought, and drought recovery. If autumn and winter do not produce significant rainfall, ministers were warned, in a briefing seen by the Observer, then the south-east could reach severe drought early next year, requiring much greater restrictions on water use. River flows are now lower than in 2012, when a drought was declared in February after a dry winter and London came close to a severe water shortage just months before the Olympics. Tony Juniper, chairman of Natural England, said: “We have been saved by extreme rain since April 2012, which meant low flows rather than closing London.” Of the many near-droughts in recent years, he said, “this is by far the worst so far.” The impact is likely to hit the natural environment and agriculture more than households, according to Alastair Chisholm, director of policy at the Chartered Institute of Water and Environmental Management. Water companies will do their best to avoid rationing or rationing, but farmers can expect less favorable treatment. “The environment, agriculture and everything else goes out the window compared to public health and the need to keep people’s water supplies running,” he said. Ministers were told this week that farmers – who face up to half their crops being destroyed – effectively only have a month’s worth of water as pumping levels are now as high as they would normally be in November, the Observer can reveal. Conservation groups have also warned that some rivers are reaching “the point of no return” as they dry up into stagnant pools. Drought was officially declared on Friday in eight of England’s 14 regions, with more under consideration, after a meeting on Friday of the National Drought Team, made up of the Environment Agency and other officials, water companies, water regulator Ofwat , farmer leaders and conservation groups. Storms expected from Sunday will do little to alleviate the dry conditions as rain flows from dry and compacted ground and flash flooding is possible. Five water companies have so far announced pipeline bans, but farmers have called for more. Although officially the bans can be lifted as soon as the situation improves, in hard-hit south-east England, local officials are preparing for restrictions to last until Christmas or the New Year, the Observer has learned. Spectators at Newbury Racecourse on Saturday 13th August. Photo: Steve Paston/PA Liz Stevens, associate professor of meteorology at the University of Reading, said winter would be decisive. “We are very worried about what will happen in the coming months. If we have below average rainfall in the fall and winter, we would be in a very serious situation in the spring.” He added: “If this weather persists, we will need a much wetter than average winter to recover.” Stuart Singleton-White, from the Angling Trust, said: “Look at these graphs from the meeting, even if we have rain somewhere close to average, if we have river levels assuming 80 per cent or 60 per cent of the long-term average rainfall over the next two months, then we may avoid [severe drought]but the level of confidence even reaching 60 percent is low. “Even if we do get rain, it won’t go into our rivers and aquifers because it will be used to re-wet the very dry ground. If we don’t have significant rainfall for a very long time, we will have an extended drought for next year and possibly a severe drought.” Experts said England was better placed to withstand the drought than in 2012, when a string of dry winters since 2009-10 had severely depleted groundwater resources, leading to an unusual spring drought declaration that year. Conversely, good rainfall levels in late 2021 and early this year have replenished groundwater resources, which are falling but not yet at critical levels. Chisholm said: “This drought came very quickly. More often than not we have seen drought after a dry winter, but this year all resources were very well replenished. We went from a good situation to a record-breaking drought very quickly.” This article was amended on 14 August 2022. Tony Juniper is not the ‘outgoing’ chair of Natural England, as stated in an earlier version.
