It amounts to perhaps a fifth of all recorded Russian warplane losses in the war in Ukraine, now 47 as estimated by Oryx analysts, and while Moscow’s air force has dozens more fighters in its arsenal, the scale of its success and immediate propaganda the price cannot be overstated. While it is not the first Ukrainian attack in Crimea since the war began, it is the most significant, not only because it took place some 110 miles (177 kilometers) behind the front lines, but because it took place in front of thousands of tourists. Videos showed Russian sunbathers hastily abandoning their sunbeds with clouds from the explosion in the distance, and later apparently blocking roads outside the peninsula with traffic. Ukrainian propagandists wasted little time in amplifying the issue: the country’s defense ministry released a video aimed at ordinary Russian vacationers. Accompanied by Bananarama’s Cruel Summer stalwart, he suggested “you had a few options” for a summer holiday but warned “you chose Crimea – big mistake”, followed by footage of the explosions as seen from the beach. Crimea Air Base Before and after image of Saky Air Base. The Russian public may have a different take on the war in Ukraine, but occasionally news of setbacks gets through. The destruction of warplanes in Saky will be accompanied by disasters such as the sinking of the cruiser Moskva in April or the estimated loss of more than 70 armored vehicles in the failed river crossing at Bilohorivka in Donbas in March. Word of mouth from those leaving will amplify the impact. But casualties are a fact of war, so a further question is: what military and political impact will the attack have? Ukraine has been particularly reluctant to officially take responsibility publicly, although officials do so privately. This suggests that Kyiv wants to maintain some ambiguity about how the attack was carried out, mainly because it will hope to repeat the success again. Certainly, the attackers knew what they were aiming for, probably hitting more than one ammunition or fuel dump mounted near the aircraft, leading to intense explosions and fire whose impact can be seen not only from satellite images but also from a video a row of burnt out cars parked nearby. Such precision can only be achieved with accurate local intelligence, a point of concern for the Russians. The most likely scenario is that the dumps were hit from relatively close range, possibly by kamikaze drone, in a daring raid by special forces or guerrillas. The use of long-range missiles has not been ruled out, as the air base is theoretically close to the Poseidon missiles launched from Odessa, 165 miles away, but those studying videos of the explosion have found little evidence to support that. Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you to the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morning Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Justin Bronk, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security, said the primary military significance of the attack was not in terms of the number of aircraft destroyed, but the impact it would have on the Russian air force’s sense of security. The Air Force, he said, “will have less confidence in force protection capabilities several hundred kilometers from the front lines.” Explosions at Saky air base in Crimea send smoke into the sky – video That could mean Russian forces would have to “dedicate more troops, equipment and effort to protecting their air bases,” Bronk added, pulling forces away from the front lines, “or rely on air bases that are too farther’ with an impact on efficiency. and efficiency. Ukraine’s short-term goal, however, is much larger – to try to launch a broad counteroffensive before the fall to force Russian troops out of Kherson, the only city west of the Dnieper river held by the invaders. What Ukrainian forces are doing – and this would partly explain the operational secrecy – is to stage a series of attacks targeting military bases and munitions dumps, presumably to disrupt Russian logistics and degrade Moscow’s ability to defend and strengthen Kherson. The attacks have taken place mostly around the city and in the wider Kherson province, including on Tuesday, according to reports, at a warehouse in Novooleksiivka, a road and rail link to Crimea – although the Sevastopol naval base in southern Crimea was hit from the Russians said it was a drone attack in late July. The question is whether such attacks will seriously weaken Russia’s ability to withstand a full-scale counterattack or simply amount to social media propaganda coups. This will only be tested if Ukraine is able to muster enough combat power to try to advance on the city. Meanwhile, there is the obvious concern that Russia, stung by the attack in what it thought was its backyard, will seek to retaliate.
