Klaus Müller, head of the federal network agency (BNA), will be responsible for curbing gas supplies if Europe’s biggest economy suffers a winter energy crisis. “If we fail to achieve our goal [of 20 per cent gas savings] then there is a serious risk of not having enough natural gas,” he told the Financial Times. Müller said Germany would also need about 10 gigawatts of additional natural gas supplies from other sources to make up for the amounts missing from Russia – largely liquefied natural gas from countries such as the US. This represents about 9 percent of current natural gas consumption. He said Germany would also have to rely on gas imports from other European countries. Müller also warned that the long-term cost of ending Germany’s dependence on Russia would be a “very high gas price” that could have big consequences for business. “Some production could be moved away from Germany because natural gas has become too expensive,” he said. “And that’s hard to happen.” Germany has feared a looming fuel crisis since Russian gas giant Gazprom cut supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in mid-June, citing technical problems. The main pipeline for delivering Russian natural gas to Europe is operating at just 20% capacity. The drop in deliveries has pushed up natural gas prices, with the European benchmark rising from around 66 euros per megawatt hour at the start of the year to 206 euros (as of Friday afternoon). It has also damaged Germany’s efforts to fill its gas storage ahead of winter, when demand rises. Germany has accused Russia of “weaponizing” its energy exports as part of a backlash against sanctions imposed over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. Over the weekend, Germany’s economy ministry ordered all companies and local authorities to lower the minimum room temperature in their workplaces to 19 degrees Celsius in winter. Berlin has already reached the second stage of a tripartite national gas emergency plan. If it reaches the final stage, which would involve limiting gas to industrial customers, BNA would have to decide which companies could no longer be fully supplied. Müller admitted that being responsible for a decision that would affect thousands of businesses took its toll. “It’s like having the Alps on my shoulders,” he said. “But it’s all about making the best of a bad situation.” He said BNA did “a lot of detective work” to determine which companies should be prioritized in any restrictions. Germany has chartered several floating regasification storage units, which will moor at terminals like the one in Wilhelmshaven © David Hecker/Getty Images “You have to try to understand what the impact of gas disruption will be on some companies in the supply chain for critical products, what the consequences will be for jobs, for manufacturing, for value chains,” he said. “If you take things like packaging and logistics, these are companies that make containers for critical goods like medicine and food.” These, too, could be considered “systemically relevant,” he said. The same applies to the glass and ceramic industries, he said. The key to Germany’s preparedness this winter is how much natural gas can be stored. Tank operators are required by law to raise levels to 75 percent by Sept. 1, 85 percent by Oct. 1, and 95 percent by Nov. 1. Mueller said the first target was achievable — levels are currently at 74.4 percent — but two others were “much more ambitious.” Gazprom’s Rehden, Germany’s largest natural gas storage facility, is still only 52.3% full. With Rehden “we still have a long way to go [it] up,” Müller said. He warned that even if all the tanks were filled, they would only have enough gas for about two and a half months if Russia stopped supplies altogether – and only if it wasn’t an unusually cold winter. “We need enough for at least two winters, not just one,” he said. “And it’s not a good option to empty gas storage at the expense of next year.” Germany wants to wean itself off Russian gas by the summer of 2024 and ministers have scoured the world to secure liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments. The country has chartered several specialized vessels known as floating storage regasification units (FSRUs) that can turn LNG back into gas and feed it into the German pipeline network. Two will be commissioned in early 2023. It is also building three permanent LNG terminals. But experts warn that finding enough LNG will be a challenge. According to the International Energy Agency, LNG export capacity additions are set to slow over the next three years as a result of declining investment in the mid-2010s and delays in construction. Müller said the 2024 target of ending all Russian energy imports depended on “many unknowns” but was “achievable” provided Germany operated six FSRUs, received additional natural gas from its neighbors and reduced industrial consumption. If it is a gas emergency in the winter, the German government has made it clear that private households will be protected from interruption of supply. But Müller warned that they still do not “have the right to consume huge amounts of gas”. The authorities had, he acknowledged, no way to get household consumers to use less fuel. But “I think people will do what they did during the pandemic: they will follow the rules, even when no one is actually enforcing them,” he said.
