Nottingham Forest v West Ham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Jumping to hard conclusions at this point in the season rarely bodes well in terms of the rest of the betting bank, so I’m happy to forgive Nottingham Forest for such a sloppy and cowardly display at Newcastle last weekend. Steve Cooper’s men managed an expected goals of just 0.28 from five shots on target at St James’ Park and completely dominated key areas of the pitch, especially in midfield where Joelinton and Bruno Guimaraes showed Forest how to train in a Premier League match. I expect a lot more noise, excitement and spark from the Cooper boys as Premier League football returns to the City Ground for the first time in 23 years and 82 days, the longest interval between games for one team in Premier League history. Of Forest’s starting line-up last week, Brennan Johnson and Neco Williams weren’t even born the last time Forest played at this level and the average cost of a pint of lager was £1.90. The glory years. I expect a raucous, cup-like atmosphere – something David Moyes will want his team to manage in the opening exchanges. They have the experience and class in midfield with the excellent Declan Rice handling themselves early on and then taking over as the game progresses. The Hammers scored 55 per cent of their goals after half-time last season and Evens for the second half to score the most goals makes sense for those looking to pounce on a market.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Chelsea v Tottenham, Sunday 16:30, live on Sky Sports
The most courageous act is still to think for yourself. Aloud. It’s time to put it into practice. As scary as it sounds to put too much faith in Tottenham to win a game of football at Stamford Bridge, if I’m fully invested in the theory that Spurs are a threat in every competition they play this season, I just have to back them to beat an undercooked and underdog Chelsea as underdogs on 21/10 with Sky Bet. Many of you will be screaming at me right now to point out that Chelsea have lost just one of their last 32 home league meetings with Spurs, winning 21. But this is a new era at Tottenham with Antonio Conte at the helm. They are going places and playing with supreme energy, while Chelsea – on the evidence of the last six months – are stagnant. This is the perfect time for Spurs to head to west London. Thomas Tuchel is clearly not happy with the tools at his disposal before the transfer window closes and that was reflected throughout their slow and steady display in the 1-0 win over Everton. They seemed to lack attacking imagination and cohesion as they stumbled to an expected goals tally (excluding penalties) of just 0.86 – a remarkably low figure considering they won 16 corners in the match against a team that can’t defend set-pieces. A lack of imagination up front has been a concern in 2022. Chelsea have scored just 34 goals from an expected rate of 32.1 since the turn of the year with Liverpool (46), Manchester City (50) and Tottenham Hotspur (51) showing all much larger numbers in the last third. With Chelsea’s defense still performing among the best in the Premier League and Spurs highly unlikely to run away with the game, I’m happy to be greedy and bump up the price by backing Conte’s men to win by one goal at 7/2.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | BETTING CORNER: Tottenham to win by one goal (7/2 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
Liverpool v Crystal Palace, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
If Liverpool bring the same lack of zip, physicality, desire and pressure to the table in their 2-2 draw with Fulham, then Sky Bet’s 1/4 takers on a home win could suffer some financial discomfort . A team that normally averaged 19.1 shots per game in the Premier League last year and has an expected goal number of 2.50 fell well below their usual standards, scoring just 11 shots and an xG of 1.23. They also recorded the lowest distance traveled by any team last weekend and edged Fulham by just under 7km – only Aston Villa (7km) and Wolves (8.6km) went further on the opening weekend. Jurgen Klopp would be privately outraged and embarrassed by these numbers. That makes this absolutely terrible timing for Crystal Palace to go to Anfield. A reaction is expected. Despite starting their season with a loss to Arsenal, there were encouraging signs for Patrick Vieira’s side in their approach, but I’m still not really convinced they’ll score enough goals to seriously break into the top eight this season. The Reds have conceded just four goals in their last 14 Premier League home games and are looking for a fourth straight win without conceding at home to Palace (4/5 with Sky Bet).
