RIGA, Latvia — As the United States and NATO pour personnel and equipment into Eastern Europe in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, vulnerable allies such as Latvia are scrambling to raise their defenses for fear of being attacked next. Like Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO but is considered a close partner of the alliance, countries closest to Russia say they are desperate for more Western military aid. It is necessary to arm themselves as well as Ukraine, Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks said during a visit by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this month, because there is a real risk of war “coming to our borders”. The Biden administration has pledged to step up side-by-side exercises in the region to improve air defense capability and other vital combat skills, not only in Latvia but across the Baltic and other nations in close proximity to Russian forces. About 100,000 US troops are deployed across Europe, an increase of 20,000 in recent months, with a growing center of gravity in the east. But for those on Russia’s doorstep, it’s still not enough. NATO members bordering Russia and Belarus – which, once considered a neutral state, has served as a forward base for Russian troops since the start of the war in Ukraine – are pleased, they say, that the United States along with economic European powers have adopted the view that Russia poses an existential threat to the West. The Senate approves Sweden and Finland joining NATO The military investments made in the last six months are gratefully received, but Leaders in the region believe the alliance needs to become more aggressive in the long term. They have it in mind resistance from some corners of Congress to moving more US personnel to Europe at a time of rising tensions with China, but most insist that a larger US footprint in Europe is necessary to keep Moscow at bay. Even more vital, Baltic and Eastern European officials say, is overstretching defense production lines to speed up the fulfillment of long-standing arms orders that these front-line countries say they require. “HIMARS, Reaper, anti-battery radars: these are what we will need most in terms of the military lethality needed immediately to deter Russia,” Kusti Salm, secretary general of Estonia’s defense ministry, said in an interview. It referred to highly mobile artillery missile systems, drones capable of conducting surveillance and precision strikes, and technology used to detect incoming fire. “We’re on the verge of taking risks,” Salm said. “Very great risks to our own national security to exploit some of our reserves. … And I know there are other allies who do the same. So the only solution is to rapidly increase productive capacity and ensure that the policy framework and policy funding signal support for this.” Earlier this year, Congress approved hundreds of millions of dollars to support, train and equip foreign countries that have helped Ukraine’s war effort — a category that includes all NATO frontline nations — as part of a $40 billion aid package dollars for the Kyiv government and other measures to strengthen the Western defense. Part of the initiative requires acceleration efforts to replace legacy Soviet systems with NATO-spec weapons, many front-line states rushed into Ukraine early in the conflict. Many of these countries also supply Ukraine with NATO-compatible heavy weapons from their own stockpiles. A senior US defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon, said that, in the case of Latvia, its government felt comfortable providing Ukraine with some weapons because Russian forces stationed near their common border was withdrawn to participate in the war effort. But Moscow’s hostility to NATO remains unchanged, this official said, and Western countries must supplement those capabilities at some point. The official did not say how long it might take. The United States is looking to the Baltic states to build training grounds and other military infrastructure, the official added, noting that US security assistance to the region has risen to $180 million this year. The US rejects Poland’s offer to give Ukraine its old warplanes In an interview, the Polish defense attaché, Brig. General Krzysztof Nolbert, said “Winning this war is absolutely fundamental to security in Europe.” Poland is the third-largest donor to the Ukrainian military, Nolbert added, and has regularly urged the West to support Kyiv “more decisively and not incrementally,” including by sending fighter jets. At the same time, Polish officials believe it would greatly help their own defense posture if the United States could speed up the delivery of some weapons already promised to Warsaw. Poland expects batteries of Patriot missiles, HIMARS, F-16 fighter jets and Abrams tanks, all on multi-year timetables set before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Recently, the head of Poland’s national security office, Pawel Soloch, spoke with President Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, about the need for defense production to be more responsive to escalating threats, impressing upon him that the foreign military financing protocols of the US was demanding an upgrade, according to people familiar with the conversation who spoke on condition of anonymity to clarify a private conversation. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the characterization of their discussion. “I know they’re working at full speed,” Nolbert said. But he added: “It is an emergency situation. We need it now.” In Latvia, meanwhile, Defense Minister Pabriks told reporters this month that his country is seeking the sophisticated long-range rocket artillery that has baffled Russian troops in eastern Ukraine, as well as air and coastal defense systems generally out of reach for countries with modest budgets. Latvia now considers the Belarusian and Russian borders to be one and the same, Pabriks said, and officials here are closely monitoring what’s happening on the other side with the help of intelligence provided by the United States and other partners. There are currently about 600 Americans deployed to Latvia, up from about 100 last winter. NATO’s persistent troop and weapons deployments in countries along Russia’s flank are a strategy that Western military leaders call porcine defense. It seeks to make the idea of invasion unpalatable to rival war planners by showing that NATO troops can immediately mobilize and support allies already hardened by Western training and equipment. During a stop at Lielvarde Air Base in Latvia, where US troops are stationed, Austin overheard a Latvian serviceman who said he was the first in his country to return from Black Hawk helicopter training in the United States. In recent years, Latvian pilots have been more focused on missions such as search and rescue, he told the defense minister, but now they know how to fly in combat. The meeting highlighted, however, that even some minor challenges remain. An American soldier, deployed here from Ohio, revealed that it is often difficult to work personally with his Latvian counterparts. They are an hour’s drive from each other, the soldier said, and transportation is lacking. “We’ll work on it,” Austin replied. “We’ll figure it out. … We’ll make sure we know the people we’re committed to fighting alongside, and you’ll get a chance to see some of the land you might have to protect one day.” Pabrix was heard in a more urgent and ominous tone, telling the assembled troops, “If anything happens on our borders, we are ready to die.” Demirjian reported from Washington and Birnbaum from Warsaw.
