With less than three weeks to go before the deadline for the September 2 vote, the Opinium survey of 570 Tory MPs puts the foreign secretary on 61% and the former chancellor on 39%. The polls Truss’s lead is, however, narrower than in some other recent polls of the Tory electorate, possibly suggesting that Sunak may have closed the gap in recent days. She has come under increasing pressure over her refusal to support what she describes as “handouts” to help people with their energy bills and has been heavily criticized for a rollback on public sector pay for workers outside London and south-east London. England. Opinium’s detailed question also reveals a striking lack of enthusiasm for each candidate when members are asked whether they would prefer one of them to Boris Johnson to lead the party and the country. When offered the choice of Johnson still in No 10 or Truss taking over, around 63% of Tory members said they would prefer Johnson to still be in charge compared to 22% who wanted Truss. Even more strongly, 68% said they would rather still have Johnson than see him replaced by Sunak, who was favored by just 19%. The poll found that almost three in ten of the Tory electorate (29%) had already voted. About 47% said they would definitely vote for the candidate they had chosen. Just 19% said they were undecided. Opinium said that while this finding still meant it was possible for Sunak to make a stunning comeback and break into No.10, to do so he would have to win almost all the undecideds and convert a significant chunk of Truss wavers. Truss’s support is particularly strong among older Conservative members, while Sunak’s is much stronger among younger ones. Among the over-65s, Truss is 40 points ahead, while she is eight points behind Sunak among the under-50s. Opinium asked members what was the main reason they supported either candidate. For Sunak, the most cited reason was that he would be better at managing the economy (22%), while 10% said they saw him as the most capable or intelligent. A main reason given by people who supported Truss was dislike of Sunak (14%). The same proportion (14%) said the secretary of state was more honest and trustworthy, while 10% chose the fact that she had remained loyal to Johnson and not called for him to resign. Around 2% of Tory members cited race or ethnicity as a reason for supporting Truss rather than Sunak. Opinium’s Chris Curtis said that despite Tory members’ seemingly growing nostalgia for Johnson – and a less ecstatic response to any of the candidates to replace him – it was now hard to see how Truss would fail to become the next Prime Minister. “From the moment we met the final two candidates, it was clear that Truss had all the momentum and our latest poll shows just how big her lead has become among party members,” he said. “With many members having already returned their ballots, it is now highly unlikely that Truss will not become Prime Minister in September. “It’s clear that Sunak’s biggest problem is confidence. While some members respect his financial arguments, this has not been enough to overcome the members’ view that he is not honest or trustworthy enough for the top job, particularly after he asked Johnson to leave.” Today’s poll is Opinium’s first to be conducted solely among members of the party who will ultimately decide the next prime minister, after MPs whittled the number of candidates down to two. The final result will be announced on September 5.
