Across Europe, drought is shrinking once-mighty rivers, with potentially dramatic consequences for industry, freight, energy and food production – just as supply shortages and price spikes from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine bite . Due to climate collapse, an unusually dry winter and spring followed by record summer temperatures and repeated heatwaves have left Europe’s main waterways replenished and, increasingly, overheating. With no significant rainfall recorded for nearly two months in western, central and southern Europe and no forecast in the near future, forecasters say the drought could become the continent’s worst in more than 500 years. “We have not fully analyzed this year’s event because it is still ongoing,” said Andrea Toreti of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre. “There were no other events in the last 500 [years] similar to the drought of 2018. But this year, I think, is worse.” He said there was a “very high risk of drought” continuing over the next three months, adding that without effective mitigation the intensity and frequency of drought would “increase dramatically in Europe, both north and south”. Germany’s Federal Hydrological Institute (BfG) said the level of the Rhine, whose waters are used for freight transport, irrigation, manufacturing, power generation and drinking, would continue to fall until at least early next week. On Friday the water in the critical Kaub 50km downstream from Mainz – which measures navigability, not water depth – fell below 40cm, the level at which many shipping companies consider it no longer economical to operate barges. It could fall close to 30cm in the coming days, BfG said. Many barges, which carry coal for power plants and vital raw materials for industrial giants such as steelmaker Thyssen and chemical giant BASF, are already operating at around 25% capacity to reduce their draft, increasing shipping costs by up to fivefold. A vital part of northwest Europe’s economy for centuries, the 760 miles (1,233 km) of the Rhine flows from Switzerland through Germany’s industrial heartland before reaching the North Sea at the megaport of Rotterdam. A complete shutdown of Rhine barge traffic would hit Germany’s – and Europe’s – economy hard: experts estimated that a six-month suspension in 2018 cost around €5bn (£4.2bn), while low water levels are forecast to cost in Germany 0.2 units of economic growth this year. While the EU has said boosting sea freight by 25% is one of the bloc’s green transition priorities, Germany is now working to divert it to rail and road – although between 40 and 100 trucks are needed to replace a standard van. France’s rivers may not be such essential freight arteries, but they serve to cool the nuclear power plants that generate 70% of the country’s electricity. As prices hit all-time highs, electricity giant EDF was forced to cut production due to the drought. Strict rules regulate how much nuclear plants can raise the temperature of rivers when they discharge cooling water – and if low water levels and high air temperatures mean the river is already overheated, they have no choice but to cut output. With Europe’s looming energy crisis intensifying and the Garonne, Rhône and Loire rivers already too warm to allow the discharge of cooling water, France’s nuclear regulator last week allowed five plants to temporarily break the rules. In Italy, the flow of the dried-up Po, Italy’s longest river, has dropped to a tenth of its normal speed and the water level is 2 meters below normal. As there has been no continuous rainfall in the region since November, maize and risotto production has been severely affected. The Po Valley accounts for between 30% and 40% of Italy’s agricultural production, but rice farmers in particular have warned that up to 60% of their crop could be lost as rice fields dry up and are damaged by seawater absorbed by the low river level. In the protected wetlands of the river’s delta, near Venice, its high temperature and sluggish flow have reduced the water’s oxygen content to such an extent that an estimated 30% of the clams growing in the lagoon have already been killed. Low river levels and high water temperatures can prove fatal for many species. In Bavaria, the Danube reached 25C last week and could reach 26.5C by the middle of the month, meaning its oxygen content will drop below six parts per million – fatal for the trout. Freight on the 2,850km Danube has also been largely disrupted, prompting authorities in Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria to begin dredging deeper channels, while barges carrying mostly fuel for power generators wait to move on. Even Norway, which relies on hydropower for about 90 percent of its electricity generation, has said its unusually low reservoir levels may eventually force it to curb energy exports.
