But so far, the year of the tiger has been full of obstacles. First, draconian Covid lockdowns in major cities such as Xi’an and Shanghai, the commercial capital, caused an outcry and disrupted global supply chains. The economy then showed signs of a severe slowdown, leading to rising youth unemployment. Xi’s “borderless” cooperation with Vladimir Putin has also made China a target of Western criticism. And in the last fortnight or so, a whirlwind trip by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has raised real fears of a miscalculation over Taiwan, which Beijing has long claimed as its own. Last week, just before the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) began a series of exercises around Taiwan, China’s air force reminded citizens of its role by invoking the memories of Du Fengrui, a PLA pilot who 64 years ago shot down two airliners Kuomingtang in the Taiwan Straits, but was killed in an ensuing attack. “When it comes to protecting the interests of the motherland, the blood and pride of the hero is always within us,” said Fu Dinghai, a pilot in the Eastern Theater Command. “As successors of Du, we are also not afraid of bloodshed and sacrifice… [we shall] resolutely complete the tasks given to us by the party and the people.” For a few days, there was a sense of crisis on the island of Taiwan. The dramatic exercises drew worldwide attention – as well as some condemnation. The exercises were finally completed on Wednesday. But analysts say the real long-term crisis has just begun. China’s economy has shown signs of a serious slowdown, leading to rising youth unemployment. Photo: Mark Schiefelbein/AP “Both the US and China realize that the events of the past week underscore that we are moving toward a protracted crisis in Taiwan,” said Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC. “For Xi, managing the crisis is as big a challenge as it is for Biden.” China’s propaganda machine is in overdrive after Pelosi’s visit, creating a strong sense of anger and determination. “Pelosi’s insidious visit [to Taiwan] could help speed up the reunification of the homeland,” wrote a popular post on WeChat last week. China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, also called Taiwan’s leader, Tsai Ing-wen, “unworthy.” In its first White Paper in 22 years, Beijing on Wednesday reiterated its preference to unite Taiwan through peaceful means. “But we will not refrain from using force and we reserve the right to take all necessary measures,” he said. The line that Beijing would “not send troops or administrative personnel to be based in Taiwan” after “unification” – which appeared in both the 1993 and 2000 white papers – had been removed from the latest version. But despite the heightened rhetoric and unprecedented backlash, Xi does not want a crisis right now with the US – at least for now. According to the Wall Street Journal, Xi on July 28 tried to convince Biden to stop Pelosi from going to Taipei, but also said he had no intention of going to war with the US and stressed the need to “maintain peace and of security”. . “In the run up to this year’s party congress, where Xi is expected to win a third term as supreme leader, his top priority is to manage various risks and ensure stability,” said Professor Dali Yang, a China expert at the University of Chicago. “Xi often talks about stability as the bottom line, but even as powerful as he is, it is very difficult to ensure that everything is under control with Covid-19.” One of the biggest headaches for Xi and his bureaucrats is the economy, which has been hit hard by repeated lockdowns this year. In May, Premier Li Keqiang convened a national meeting to address the dismal labor market. He pulled no punches, kicking things off with a stark warning about jobs: “the current employment situation is complex and bleak,” he said, urging more support for small and medium-sized businesses. Xi Jinping is expected to seek a third term this year. Photo: Vernon Yuen/REX/Shutterstock Li’s warning came as China is expected to miss this year’s target of 5.5 percent GDP growth, which it set in March. Since Li’s speech, China’s economy continues to disappoint. According to data from the statistics agency in July, youth unemployment had risen to 19.3 percent, a trend accelerated by full or partially draconian lockdowns imposed in major centers across China in the spring, including Shanghai. Ironically, however, Xi’s zero-Covid policy is here to stay – at least for the foreseeable future. As Hu Chunhua, the vice-premier, put it in a follow-up speech to Li at the May meeting, China should continue to “unswervingly adhere to the general policy of dynamic clearance,” as he promised, according to the official reading. Yang said China was in a quandary to decide the next stage of its Covid management. “Due to China’s success in containing Covid in 2020 and 2021, the Chinese media began to emphasize the danger of the virus, while China also made a number of mistakes in its vaccination strategy. Now that the world is opening up, China is still stuck in a difficult spot.” All of this will set the tone for Xi if he secures a third term later this year. Since the presidential term limit was abolished in 2018, a consensus has formed among Chinese and foreign experts that the 69-year-old leader could theoretically continue to rule indefinitely – breaking a recent convention. In the coming months, the ruling Communist Party is set to hold its 20th party congress and Xi is expected to receive a renewed mandate. “From Xi’s point of view, he has achieved a tremendous amount during his last decade in power, from fighting corruption at home to making China more assertive internationally,” said Victor Xi, who teaches Chinese elite politics at the University of California, Berkeley. in San Diego. “The question for his third term is: will he be happy consolidating the huge gains he has made, or will he take big gambles in order to achieve additional policy goals, such as the ‘unification’ of Taiwan.”
