Between Russia and the rest of Europe are the Carpathian Mountains. Europe’s third-longest mountain range rises in southern Poland and swings south in an arc before plunging into Romania. After that the flat land descends to the Black Sea. Throughout history, if a large army wanted to approach Russia from the west, the Carpathians blocked the way, forcing it to go south or north around the region, usually north. This northern flat land is called Poland – it is the narrowest point of the northern European plain, which stretches all the way to France. Once an invading army heads east through Poland, the plain widens again along the Russian border. Russia has invaded several times from this direction, most famously by Napoleon’s army in 1812 and Hitler’s in 1941. Therefore, Russia has repeatedly tried to bridge the gap – occupying Poland, most recently during of the Cold War. Otherwise, the alternative position is to occupy or control the land immediately in front of it as a buffer zone – Belarus and Ukraine. Russia also always seeks access to a warm water port. In the north, his navy is surrounded by the ice pack for part of the year and is forced to navigate a confined space when sailing from the Baltic Sea and through the Skagerrak Strait to reach the North Sea. Putin has been able to use this history and geographic weakness to rally support at home by playing on his country’s collective memory and fears about the outside world. In 2014 Russia seized a piece of Ukraine as a thin buffer zone and annexed Crimea to ensure it would have the warm-water port of Sevastopol in perpetuity, as opposed to being on loan. In 2022 he felt strong enough to try to get the rest. The war brought Russian forces into Belarus and towards the Polish border. It also placed them next to the Suwalki Gap – a border of only 40 miles between Poland and Lithuania. At one end is the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, home to 15,000 Russian soldiers. on the other is Belarus. If they could close the gap, even with Finland and Sweden as NATO members, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia would be effectively cut off, as it is the only land route through which NATO can reinforce the three lightly armed Baltic states. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is one of Putin’s closest allies Credit: Ramil Sitdikov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP Russia’s presence in Belarus also means direct access to Poland on a broad front. Its forces in the region usually sit just inside Russia at the Smolensk Gate, a 50-mile-wide area between the Dzwina and Dnieper river systems. Military forces moving into or out of Russia are often channeled through it. Now the Russian army that usually guards the gate can advance through Belarus, which makes Poland and other countries nervous. But despite these positions of power, the Kremlin is finding that the law of unintended consequences is rarely more applicable than during wartime. Putin expected NATO and the European Union to be divided between hawks and doves. Instead, NATO has rediscovered its raison d’être and the EU has mostly come together. The consequences were dramatic. Germany has shed the postwar guilt of the past 75 years and toughened up, canceling Nord Stream 2, the massive gas pipeline project between Germany and Russia, and pledging to spend more on defense. Hungary was also forced to make a choice: between Moscow or Brussels. Hungary is close to Russia, so it has a strong pull, magnified by the attraction to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of a fellow “strong” nationalist. But geography and history also come into play. After World War I, the Austro-Hungarian Empire disintegrated, with entire territories being transferred to other countries. Among them was Transcarpathia, which had been under Hungarian control for a thousand years. It ended up in today’s Ukraine, on the border with Hungary. About 150,000 Hungarians live in what is called Zakarpattia Oblast, and there have long been tensions over their right to use their native language. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán failed to join the rest of the EU in condemning Putin’s war Credit: Attila KISBENEDEK / AFP Budapest’s preferred option is to reclaim what it considers unfairly “lost territories”, but not to the extent of legally claiming Transcarpathia. However, the combination of history and dependence on Russian energy dictated Hungary’s political response to the war next door. About 65 percent of Hungary’s oil and 75 percent of its gas imports come from Russia, and it has refused to join sanctions on Russia’s energy sector: just this week it agreed to pay an outstanding bill owed by the operator of Russia’s oil pipeline to the Ukrainian authorities. Hungary has also been reluctant to provide military aid to Ukraine and will not allow NATO weapons to pass through its territory en route to Ukraine – ostensibly to protect Transcarpathia and the Hungarians living there. Long-threatened administrative procedures to cut EU funding to Hungary over its rule of law standards finally began after Budapest failed to join the rest of the EU in condemning Putin’s war of choice. In the long run, the Hungarian political class will have to choose between who they believe is the best long-term partner for their country. The consequences are flowing. A new Iron Curtain is being drawn across Europe, stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea. Turkey has been pulling out of NATO, but now, seeing a Russia seeking to dominate the Black Sea basin, it knows its best bet to counter that is to stay in the alliance. Hulusi Akar, Minister of National Defense of Turkey, and General Christopher G. Cavoli, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, in a meeting in August Credit: Arif Akdogan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images The theoretical line of this new division in Europe can be drawn further – along the borders of Iran and the Central Asian republics, and all the way to the China Sea. On one side are the industrialized democracies, most of which have the US as their ultimate guarantor of security. on the other hand they are authoritarian states, dominated mainly by China. India is on the fence for now – slow to condemn Russia’s war of aggression because it wants to keep Moscow on its side – but will find it harder if a major crisis erupts between the democratic nations and China. The negative effects of Putin’s violence have been felt around the world and not just in terms of geopolitical relations. Russia and Ukraine are major producers of wheat. 26 countries rely on them for more than half of their annual imports. The war led to shortages and price increases in the very countries that could not afford it. The Grim Reaper is invading Ukraine and children in Egypt and Yemen are starving. Why; The power of geography. Tim Marshall is the author of The Power of Geography and Prisoners of Geography, published by Elliott & Thompson
