Amid warnings that this year’s entry round will be “the toughest in memory”, research suggests a 10 percentage point drop in the number of A and A* grades in England, Wales and Northern Ireland after the exams were reintroduced this year summer. After two years of higher average grades during the pandemic – when exams were canceled and work was assessed by teachers – the government asked regulators to set limits so that the grades, to be published on Thursday, are halved of the road between those of 2019 and 2021. grades will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023. After last year’s record results, when 44.8% of grades were either A or A* at A level, the calculation is that this will drop to 35% (from 25.5% in 2019). While almost one in five (19.1%) grades were A* last year, this year the figure is expected to drop to 13.5%. Similarly, the number of A* to C grades is expected to fall from 88.5% in 2021 to 82%. The shift in results is likely to have significant political ramifications in a year that has seen four different education secretaries. The plan for this year’s A-levels was first put in place by Gavin Williamson, who was blamed for the government’s chaotic approach to education during the pandemic. The plan is now overseen by James Cleverley, who may be given a new role when a new prime minister is appointed in September. Labor accused the Tories of “miserably failing to help children recover from the pandemic” and not taking enough extra measures for this year’s exams. One expert said this year’s experience will mark a fundamental change that will last for a decade as demand for higher education places remains high. “Instead of universities competing for students, it will be students fighting for limited degree places,” said Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter. “Thousands of students with relatively high marks are likely to be disappointed and not secure their first choices,” he added. This year’s results are also expected to show an improvement in the performance of male candidates, who are likely to have benefited from the reintroduction of the exams. They will also reflect changing subject preferences, with psychology growing in popularity as the acceptance of English continues to decline. Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Center for Research in Education and Employment at the University of Buckingham, estimated that if each applicant dropped an average of two points due to the post-pandemic rebalancing, up to 60,000 university applicants could be at risk. to lose their preferred position. Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you to the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morning Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. “The 2022 A-level results are potentially the most interesting for years,” Smithers said. “The return of the exams will allow us to start measuring the impact of teacher evaluation. “The increase in top grades has been outstanding – rising from 25.5% of the total in 2019 to 44.8% in 2021,” he said, adding: “Some candidates have been given the wrong idea of their talents and will have been wrong options, while universities could not distinguish candidates as accurately and fairly as they were used to. “Universities have responded to the boom in teacher evaluation at the top levels by raising demands and reducing business offers. For many of this year’s school leavers, the hard work didn’t end with A-levels, but starts all over again on results day in the hunt for the coveted places. “As a result of the drop in top marks, around 40,000 candidates could lose their first choices, although it could be as many as 60,000.” However, there will still be 80,000 more top grades than in 2019, when the exams were last held, and Smithers said that while there would be pressure on top courses, there would be plenty of places elsewhere. With the return of the tests, which have been brought back with adjustments to reflect the pandemic, Smithers predicted that boys will begin to catch up with girls, whose scores have improved with the pause in testing and the use of teacher assessment. In terms of subject trends, provisional figures show that numbers studying psychology have increased by 10%, making it the second most popular A level after maths. Numbers studying English continue to fall, falling by around a third from 2009 to 62,000 in 2021, with a further 8% drop in 2022. Major said: “This year will be the toughest admissions round in living memory for many applicants – and it marks a fundamental change that will last for a decade.” He said this new, more competitive era of university admissions is being driven by a rise in the number of 18-year-olds, the balancing of some universities reducing places after taking on extra students during Covid and a looming recession that is cutting alternative jobs. “We must do everything we can to ensure that our most disadvantaged and vulnerable students are not unfairly dragged out as applicants do everything possible to secure the most sought-after degrees.” He expressed concern that the gap in A-level results between state and private pupils had also widened. “The biggest challenge for schools in the post-pandemic era will be to close the academic gaps that have opened up – failure to do so will leave a generation permanently scarred.” Chris Hale, interim chief executive of Universities UK, which represents the higher education sector, said most students were expected to take their first course this year with many high-quality courses available on clearance. “They have taken into account that this year’s candidates will probably have a lower percentage of top scores than the last two years with the exams returning after the disruption of the pandemic. Decisions are not made just for grades.” A Department for Education spokesman said: “Ucas expects the majority of students to secure their place on their fixed choice this year and in preparation we have focused on working with universities to ensure offers reflect the grades students will receive this year the summer. “Competition for places at the most selective universities has always been high and this year is no different, but there will always be plenty of options for students either at another university, through clearing or high-quality career options that are just as prestigious and rewarding as academic routes.”
